108
FXUS64 KLCH 110445
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

A weak and nearly stationary frontal boundary remains draped across
SE LA west along the LA coastline this afternoon, representing the
NWD extent of a deeper pool of Gulf MSTR.  Coupled with an upper
level trough of low pressure and diurnal instability, this has
yielded scattered convection across mainly lower Acadiana earlier
this afternoon.  Much of that inland activity has now waned, though
there remains some potential for another few hours for additional
development to occur along any outflows and/or the sea breeze.
Remainder of the area has remained mostly sunny and warm, with
temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 90s. Dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s have held apparent temperatures to around
100, which while not pleasant, is well shy of heat advisory
criteria.

Any lingering inland convection will end with the loss of diurnal
instability, with a generally quiet overnight period expected away
from the coast where some nocturnal/early morning showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Seasonal low temperatures in the
lower to mid 70s are expected THU morning.

The weak SFC front is progged to gradually lift north and wash out
over the next couple of days, with the main impact being an influx
of deeper Gulf MSTR farther north into the area THU-FRI. Coupled
with the lingering upper trof axis overhead and diurnal instability,
enhanced chances (40% north to 70% south) of daytime showers and
thunderstorms are expected. A slight narrowing of the diurnal
temperature range will also occur, with lows a little higher and
highs a little lower given the increased MSTR and convection/cloud
cover.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

By the weekend, the trof will begin to fill as ridging aloft
tries to build in, but this looks to be a "dirty" ridge with
pockets of elevated MSTR remaining trapped within it.
Consequently, rain chances will begin to decrease on SAT and drop
a bit each day into the upcoming work week, but won`t go away
entirely. In addition, temperatures will start to creep up as
well, which combined with SFC dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, will
boost apparent temperatures into the 105-110 range.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

No changes since the previous forecast. VFR CIGS/VIS and light
winds will prevail through the period, except near/within any
afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the weekend, with the greatest coverage typically overnight into the
morning each day. A light onshore flow will prevail through early
next week.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  72  94  73 /  10   0  10   0
LCH  92  75  90  76 /  20  20  60  20
LFT  94  76  91  77 /  50  20  70  10
BPT  94  75  90  76 /  20  20  60  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...17