229
FXUS64 KLCH 131735
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

KLCH radar shows scattered showers already developing along the
coast and over the nearshore waters early this morning. Aloft, a
weak trough/shear zone is noted from S TX into N LA, accompanied
by an axis of deeper moisture (with PWATs of 2 inches or greater),
and this is helping to support convective development. At the
surface, weak ridging is becoming established over the area. Winds
are nearly calm areawide this morning, but as daytime heating
gets underway, light southerly winds will develop, helping to
advect low level Gulf moisture over the area, leading to another
day of typical summertime hot and humid conditions.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Guidance continues to hint at midlevel ridging across FL and the
eastern Gulf building westward over the weekend. However, the
weakness aloft over E TX/N LA will likely linger, and could
potentially transition to a weak cutoff low feature by Monday (if
the operational GFS or NAM solutions pan out). While the GFS and
NAM suggest slightly different placement of the feature (NAM
keeping it over NE TX and GFS lifting it toward E AR/W TN), its
proximity will limit the western extent of the ridge aloft.

Deep moisture (with PWATS near to above normal), instability and
limited capping aloft will allow for a daily chance for showers
and storms through the short term. The primary forcing mechanism
for convection will be the seabreeze as well as any boundaries
leftover from prior activity. Conditions do not favor organized
severe weather, but light vertical wind profiles will support the
potential for brief tropical funnel clouds. Also, any stronger
storms that develop will be capable of heavy downpours or brief
gusty winds.

Outside of convection, daytime temperatures will be close to
mid-July normals today and Sunday. Light onshore winds will
maintain an influx of moist air, with dewpoints expected to stay
in the middle to upper 70s through the day. The combination of
these elevated dewpoints and very warm temperatures will produce
apparent temperatures between 100 and 108 degrees each afternoon.
A Heat Advisory is in effect today for portions of central into
south central LA, and another may be needed on Sunday. Highs are
expected to nudge upward slightly on Monday, reaching the middle
to possibly upper 90s across portions of central LA, and this will
warrant watching for a possible heat advisory as well.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The main story to comprise the long range will be periodic isolated
to scattered showers / storms that will trend through the upcoming
weekend, which for now remains unsettled. Temperatures will trend
lower to mid 90`s south of I-10 with mid to upper 90`s more common
among the more northern interior SETX and SWLA counties / parishes
under primarily southerly flow.

Taking a deeper dive starting Tuesday, a weak upper level shortwave
stalls near the ARKLATEX while gradually filling. Numerical guidance
is not bullish on putting much precipitation across the area locally
given weak low level forcing despite a fairly moist atmospheric
column for the summer season. That said, seabreeze initiated POPs
are possible along the coast with a potential to shift inland.
However, with that more saturated column comes less favorable
buoyancy in the mid / upper levels. Additionally, dry air form
Texas will also support will be lacking for more ample /
widespread convection during the day. Wednesday carries some of
the drier signals across interior SETX and SWLA with broad ridging
across the eastern Gulf helping to suppress more favorable lapse
rates despite presences of low level moisture. However, as the day
progress, signals for POPs begin to increase toward the evening
hours while and upstream shortwave trof begins to amplify with a
positive tilt over the western Plains.

By Wednesday night, the pattern becomes a little more unsettled
regarding the uncertainty to the southern extent / timing of the
frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned shortwave
proceeding from the Plains. Given that pressure heights trend a
little higher in the Midwest, some guidance has become more egregious
with the front progressing, slowly, toward the Gulf Coast through
Friday night. With continued southerly onshore flow, this
boundary would serve as a focal point for more widespread POPs.
Lastly, recent CPC guidance has suggested more seasonable
temperatures to become more prevalent with chances leaning above
average for precipitation from the tail end of the forecast onward
in to late July. A quick reference across the Atlantic with
guidance by the NHC illustrates no tropical development expected
for the next 7 days at this time.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are present across the region with a scattered
cloud deck between 3000-6000 FT. A second higher cloud deck is
overcast above 15 kft. Through the afternoon pop-up showers and
thunderstorms will be forming across the region. Winds will be
light and variable except near outflows where winds will be
stronger and chaotic. Overnight there will be a small chance for
patchy fog, but not enough to put in the prevailing group.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Light and variable to onshore winds and low seas are expected to
prevail over the weekend and into early next week as surface high
pressure remains over the northern Gulf coast. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible, mainly from late
night into early afternoon. Locally higher waves/winds may occur
with any stronger storms.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  96 /  20  50   0  30
LCH  77  91  77  91 /  10  50   0  40
LFT  77  94  78  94 /  10  50   0  50
BPT  76  91  76  92 /  10  50   0  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ029-033-044-045-
     055-152>154-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14