711
FXUS64 KLCH 160223
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
923 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Owing primarily due to the early evening storms, parts of Acadiana
are already presently sitting at their forecast lows for the
night. Still, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, don`t expect
values to fall significantly more so no changes were required to
the inherited forecast. A quiet night will persist with scattered,
diurnally driven convection developing again Tuesday afternoon
primarily across Acadiana. A weak wind profile in the lower
atmosphere will again support the potential for tropical funnels
along colliding outflow boundaries.

Jones

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The typical summertime pattern continues today and will keep going
through the middle of the week. High pressure remains centered
offshore, with robust 594 dm heights over the central Gulf. A
second high-pressure system is located over the 4-corners region.
Overhead, weak troughing is helping to keep our atmosphere
unstable with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. This
general pattern will continue into the work week with one slight
change. Dry air looks to filter into the region from west to
east, mainly in the low to mid levels. PoPs will be highest in the
Acadiana region with percentages around 50% while SWLA and SETX
sitting closer to 20%.

High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s with dew
points in the mid 70s. This combo will keep our heat index in the
triple digits each afternoon, but not high enough to reach heat
advisory levels.

Rain chances will begin to increase Wednesday and Wednesday night
as a weak boundary moves into the area. This feature will mainly
be impacting the region on Thursday, which is covered in the long
term forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

An upper trough will be in place across the eastern sections of
the U.S. for much of the extended period. As the upper trough digs
in, a weak cold front will move toward the gulf coast and stall by
Thursday. No cooling locally is anticipated, however moisture will
pool ahead of the boundary and interact with the hot and unstable
airmass that is in place. High rain chances are anticipated.

During the weekend an upper ridge over the Atlantic will nudge west
ward while another ridge is over the western states. The area is
anticipated to remain under a shear axis between these ridges which
will keep rain chances elevated, but also keep temperatures around
normal for the date.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Widely isolated showers are tapering out of the area this early
evening with a quiet night expected. While fog is not completely
out of the realm of possibility, it is expected to be light and
patchy with no significant impacts to the terminals. Whatever does
form will burn off shortly after sunrise. Another round of typical
showers and storms are expected tomorrow afternoon and evening,
with higher chances near the Acadiana terminals.
Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Winds remain light and onshore with calm seas (1 to 3 ft). These
conditions will continue through the middle of next week. Each
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will from creating locally

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  96  74  96 /  10  10   0  40
LCH  78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  70
LFT  78  95  79  94 /  10  50  10  80
BPT  77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...87