742
FXUS64 KLCH 080436
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1136 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Conditions will deteriorate overnight toward daybreak, especially
over southeast Texas as Beryl moves onshore the middle Texas
coast.

Will have to watch closely to see if the band over the lower
Atchafalaya Basin and offshore can hold together as further
training will bring about a flash flood risk.

Otherwise, the tornado threat will increase toward morning for
lower southeast Texas as the move significant spiral bands from
Beryl move in. SPC has already issued a long duration Tornado
Watch in that area. Tides along the coast as we reach low tide are
about 1 1/2 feet above predicted levels for Sabine Pass and about
1 foot above predicted levels for Calcasieu Pass. These levels
should increase significantly by daybreak, especially for Sabine
Pass as the center of Beryl reaches the coast and the high tide
cycle begins.

No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)

Wx map shows Tropical Storm Beryl located near 26.8 North
Latitude, 95.5 West Longitude, or 130 miles SSE of Matagorda,
Texas. Central pressure slowly dropping today, but winds have not
responded as of yet. Still anticipating a more rapid strengthening
this evening and overnight before landfall across the Central
Texas coast before Daybreak Monday. Minor changes to the tropical
storm warnings, now including all of Jefferson, Hardin, Tyler
counties, as well as Sabine Lake. No changes to the coastal
tropical storm warnings which is from Sabine Pass, TX westward.
Storm surge warning for Lower Jefferson county for tides of 3-5
feet MHHW. For Cameron, a Coastal Flood Warning continues for
tides of 1.5-3.0 Feet MHHW. Further east, issued a Coastal Flood
Advisory for water levels near 1.5 feet MHHW across Lower
Vermilion, Lower Iberia, Lower St. Mary parishes through 7 PM
Monday, to match the current warnings end time.

Otherwise, periods of rainbands will continue to advance northward
tonight and Monday. Flood watch includes all of Southeast Texas
now under the Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall. Rainfall
expected to gradually diminish by Tuesday as Beryl moves further
northeast across the ArkLaTex. Still some concern another rainband
could set up Monday night into Tuesday morning across the I-10
corridor which is sometimes typical of these recurving systems.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon, can be expected Wednesday through Saturday as lingering
moisture across the Northern Gulf of Mexico interacts with daytime
heating. Lows in the lower to mid 70s, and highs in the lower to
mid 90s expected.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Forecast for the terminals will depend on the what goes on with
the track and structure of Beryl. Occasional showers will rotate
inland and be at the vicinity of KARA/KLFT/KLCH/KBPT through the
night.

Winds and squalls after will increase between 08/09z-11z at KBPT as
Beryl moves into the middle Texas coast. Wind gusts over tropical
storm force, 34 knots, will occur with gusts to over 40 knots
quite possible through the morning hours.

Winds and occasional rain squalls will gradually increase during
the late morning at KLCH and into the afternoon at KAEX/KLFT/KARA
as Beryl begins to move northeast across east Texas and rain bands
start to expand off to the east from the center.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to become a hurricane tonight and
move ashore the Central Texas Coast before daybreak Monday. Tropical
storm conditions expected over Sabine Lake and Sabine Pass, Texas
and adjacent coastal waters westward, with Small Craft Advisories
further east. As Beryl moves ashore and further inland Monday,
winds and seas will gradually subside by Monday night into
Tuesday. Expect elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms to
continue throughout the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  92  73  91 /  30  60  60  40
LCH  78  87  76  90 /  50  80  70  60
LFT  78  92  78  92 /  50  70  60  80
BPT  78  86  75  91 /  70  90  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ241-252>254.

TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ180-201-515-615.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ616.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ430-450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ432-452-455-
     472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...07