882
FXUS63 KLBF 161108
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
608 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm late today
  into this evening across the eastern panhandle and southwest
  Nebraska with potential for damaging wind and large hail.

- Marginal risk for severe storms again on Sunday, followed by
  potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day
  into next week.

- Temperatures generally at or slightly above normal through the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Early morning radar imagery shows some convection blooming off the
higher terrain across northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming being
driven my short wave energy aloft, a weak low level jet, and robust
midlevel FGEN forcing. This dynamic forcing and modestly steep lapse
rates aloft will give some potential for activity to grow upscale and
produce some gusty winds as it pushes across southwest Nebraska from
the east this morning so it will bear some watching but potential for
severe storms with this activity is generally low before it exits the
region to the east/southeast.

As this early activity moves off, a narrow north/south corridor of
instability with CAPE values at or above 2000J/kg will develop ahead of
a dryline extending from the southern panhandle down through western
Kansas, while a weak front slowly drops down from the northeast.  And
with a brisk upper jet veering from west to northwest and a bit of a
southerly low level jet developing this evening 0-6km bulk shear values
will be approaching 50kt though low level flow is generally weak with
hodographs a bit chaotic and becoming more linear than curved. Expect
this environment can support tilted updrafts and some organized
convection, but storms will have to fire first and overcome a good
amount of convective inhibition. Also, overall low level forcing is
weak with the dryline not making much eastward progress into Nebraska.
The majority of meso guidance responds to this environment by keeping
things capped with little in the way of convective redevelopment this
afternoon/evening, though the guidance that does manage to develop
isolated/widely scattered convection show fairly robust storms in
deference to the otherwise favorable environment. Overall expectation
is for the cap to keep a lid on convective development but with the
dynamic support and boundaries in play will maintain a mention of
isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms form the panhandle into the
sandhills late this afternoon through this evening. High pressure
building down into eastern Nebraska and nudge the weak frontal boundary
southward, bring generally dry conditions to central and western
Nebraska late Friday night into Saturday. The convective environment
later on Saturday will remain largely the same as today and expect the
cap will win the day. However a more robust low level jet will become
established late Saturday night and should be able to trigger some
elevated storms and with Bufkit showing elevated CAPE values around
1000J/kg in a narrow corridor from southwest Nebraska up through the
panhandle, an isolated storm may have severe potential with a primary
threat of large hail.

Highs today will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with a slight
warming into the lower 90s west of Hwy 83 for Saturday. Lows will be in
the 50s tonight, generally 60 to 65 Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Convection that develops late Saturday night will continue to
grow upscale as it moves southward and deeper into the
favorable convective environment across central Nebraska with
steep lapse rates aloft and a persistent low level jet aided by
short wave energy cresting the ridge and excellent upper
divergence in the right rear quadrant of the upper jet diving
into the mid Mississippi valley. See this environment having
potential to sustain a threat for severe storms through Sunday
as initial elevated convection grows upscale. Will have to keep
a close eye on the evolution of features as Sunday draws closer.

A large upper ridge will build over the western US into next
week with a large high at the surface sinking down from Canada
and settling over the Great Lakes region. While temperatures
aloft will rise into the 90th percentile, the best signal for
excessive heat in EFI/SoT guidance will be off to our southeast
from Colorado down through Texas. Expect this will yield
seasonably warm temperatures at or slightly above normal through
the middle of next week. Precipitation potential will be aided
by energy spilling over the top of the ridge and down into the
High Plains, while the surface high to our west will keep a
boundary anchored across the region. Precipitable water values
will rise into the 90th percentile by early next week as
moisture from the tropical Pacific gets drawn northward and over
the ridge. This will keep unsettled conditions with daily
potential for showers and thunderstorms through the latter
portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms
will track across southwest Nebraska through mid-morning with
mostly clear skies by the afternoon. Winds remain light and
variable at 10kts or less through the period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Viken