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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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882 FXUS63 KLBF 161108 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 608 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm late today into this evening across the eastern panhandle and southwest Nebraska with potential for damaging wind and large hail. - Marginal risk for severe storms again on Sunday, followed by potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day into next week. - Temperatures generally at or slightly above normal through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Early morning radar imagery shows some convection blooming off the higher terrain across northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming being driven my short wave energy aloft, a weak low level jet, and robust midlevel FGEN forcing. This dynamic forcing and modestly steep lapse rates aloft will give some potential for activity to grow upscale and produce some gusty winds as it pushes across southwest Nebraska from the east this morning so it will bear some watching but potential for severe storms with this activity is generally low before it exits the region to the east/southeast. As this early activity moves off, a narrow north/south corridor of instability with CAPE values at or above 2000J/kg will develop ahead of a dryline extending from the southern panhandle down through western Kansas, while a weak front slowly drops down from the northeast. And with a brisk upper jet veering from west to northwest and a bit of a southerly low level jet developing this evening 0-6km bulk shear values will be approaching 50kt though low level flow is generally weak with hodographs a bit chaotic and becoming more linear than curved. Expect this environment can support tilted updrafts and some organized convection, but storms will have to fire first and overcome a good amount of convective inhibition. Also, overall low level forcing is weak with the dryline not making much eastward progress into Nebraska. The majority of meso guidance responds to this environment by keeping things capped with little in the way of convective redevelopment this afternoon/evening, though the guidance that does manage to develop isolated/widely scattered convection show fairly robust storms in deference to the otherwise favorable environment. Overall expectation is for the cap to keep a lid on convective development but with the dynamic support and boundaries in play will maintain a mention of isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms form the panhandle into the sandhills late this afternoon through this evening. High pressure building down into eastern Nebraska and nudge the weak frontal boundary southward, bring generally dry conditions to central and western Nebraska late Friday night into Saturday. The convective environment later on Saturday will remain largely the same as today and expect the cap will win the day. However a more robust low level jet will become established late Saturday night and should be able to trigger some elevated storms and with Bufkit showing elevated CAPE values around 1000J/kg in a narrow corridor from southwest Nebraska up through the panhandle, an isolated storm may have severe potential with a primary threat of large hail. Highs today will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with a slight warming into the lower 90s west of Hwy 83 for Saturday. Lows will be in the 50s tonight, generally 60 to 65 Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Convection that develops late Saturday night will continue to grow upscale as it moves southward and deeper into the favorable convective environment across central Nebraska with steep lapse rates aloft and a persistent low level jet aided by short wave energy cresting the ridge and excellent upper divergence in the right rear quadrant of the upper jet diving into the mid Mississippi valley. See this environment having potential to sustain a threat for severe storms through Sunday as initial elevated convection grows upscale. Will have to keep a close eye on the evolution of features as Sunday draws closer. A large upper ridge will build over the western US into next week with a large high at the surface sinking down from Canada and settling over the Great Lakes region. While temperatures aloft will rise into the 90th percentile, the best signal for excessive heat in EFI/SoT guidance will be off to our southeast from Colorado down through Texas. Expect this will yield seasonably warm temperatures at or slightly above normal through the middle of next week. Precipitation potential will be aided by energy spilling over the top of the ridge and down into the High Plains, while the surface high to our west will keep a boundary anchored across the region. Precipitable water values will rise into the 90th percentile by early next week as moisture from the tropical Pacific gets drawn northward and over the ridge. This will keep unsettled conditions with daily potential for showers and thunderstorms through the latter portion of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska through the period. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will track across southwest Nebraska through mid-morning with mostly clear skies by the afternoon. Winds remain light and variable at 10kts or less through the period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Viken