197
FXUS63 KLBF 160541
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1241 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms Friday
  afternoon and evening across the eastern panhandle and
  southwest Nebraska with strong winds and hail possible.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
  through the middle of next week as highs reach the mid 80s to
  low 90s.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Saturday night
  through next Thursday. The best chances are Sunday night and
  Monday night. The severe potential remains uncertain.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

At 20Z, a closed low was over eastern North Dakota with an upper
trough extending south into the mid Missouri Valley. Due to
steep lapse rates, isolated instability showers and a few
thunderstorms are occurring across South Dakota into north
central Nebraska. This activity will tend to diminish and end
by early this evening. Temperatures ranged from 78 at O`Neill to
86 at Broken Bow. Prevailing winds were northwest at 5 to 15
mph with gusts to 20 mph across the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Tonight through Friday morning, a weak disturbance will cross
southern Wyoming and drop southeast late tonight into the
southern panhandle and southwest Nebraska. There is good model
agreement on at least some scattered light precipitation
beginning late tonight and lasting through late Friday morning.
The higher 30 POPs will be near and south of I80 with a slight
chance as far north as Highway 2. With mostly sunny skies in the
afternoon, highs to reach the mid to upper 80s. Winds will be
light and variable.

Friday evening, some of the CAMs generate convection from the
central panhandle into the central Sandhills near Highway 2 east
to Thedford. Have introduced a slight chance. There is a
Marginal Risk for severe storms Friday evening across the
western Sandhills. Coverage of any strong storms looks very
isolated however.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A upper trough over the Great Lakes will slowly move into the
eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. An upper ridge
centered over New Mexico will gradually build into the Central
Plains through Tuesday. Despite upper height rises, not looking
for hot temperatures. Highs Saturday through next Thursday will
mostly range from the mid 80s to low 90s. H85-H5 relative
humidity will often range from 40 to 60 percent with surface
dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid 60s and a prevailing
south/southeast surface wind.

Sunday night through Monday night looks to be the more active
period. Gulf moisture will be in place, with nocturnal
convection favored as "ridge runners" develop east of the upper
ridge axis centered across eastern Wyoming through central
Colorado. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both indicate the
potential for locally heavy rainfall if small MCSs develop. 40
to 50 POPs are forecast Sunday night and again Monday night.

Tuesday through Thursday, only a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms, as the upper ridge continues to build further
east across the Central U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across western and north central
Nebraska through the period. Scattered rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms will continue to track eastward out of eastern
Wyoming and northeast Colorado through the overnight bringing
mid-level clouds to the area. Minimal impacts to site KLBF are
expected with the activity, though gusty winds may be possible.
The activity should taper off through the afternoon on Friday.
Will rely heavily on radar and satellite for subsequent TAFs.
Otherwise, light and variable winds persist through much of the
period at generally 10kts or less.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Viken