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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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197 FXUS63 KLBF 160541 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1241 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening across the eastern panhandle and southwest Nebraska with strong winds and hail possible. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the middle of next week as highs reach the mid 80s to low 90s. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Saturday night through next Thursday. The best chances are Sunday night and Monday night. The severe potential remains uncertain. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 At 20Z, a closed low was over eastern North Dakota with an upper trough extending south into the mid Missouri Valley. Due to steep lapse rates, isolated instability showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring across South Dakota into north central Nebraska. This activity will tend to diminish and end by early this evening. Temperatures ranged from 78 at O`Neill to 86 at Broken Bow. Prevailing winds were northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph across the west. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Tonight through Friday morning, a weak disturbance will cross southern Wyoming and drop southeast late tonight into the southern panhandle and southwest Nebraska. There is good model agreement on at least some scattered light precipitation beginning late tonight and lasting through late Friday morning. The higher 30 POPs will be near and south of I80 with a slight chance as far north as Highway 2. With mostly sunny skies in the afternoon, highs to reach the mid to upper 80s. Winds will be light and variable. Friday evening, some of the CAMs generate convection from the central panhandle into the central Sandhills near Highway 2 east to Thedford. Have introduced a slight chance. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Friday evening across the western Sandhills. Coverage of any strong storms looks very isolated however. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A upper trough over the Great Lakes will slowly move into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. An upper ridge centered over New Mexico will gradually build into the Central Plains through Tuesday. Despite upper height rises, not looking for hot temperatures. Highs Saturday through next Thursday will mostly range from the mid 80s to low 90s. H85-H5 relative humidity will often range from 40 to 60 percent with surface dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid 60s and a prevailing south/southeast surface wind. Sunday night through Monday night looks to be the more active period. Gulf moisture will be in place, with nocturnal convection favored as "ridge runners" develop east of the upper ridge axis centered across eastern Wyoming through central Colorado. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both indicate the potential for locally heavy rainfall if small MCSs develop. 40 to 50 POPs are forecast Sunday night and again Monday night. Tuesday through Thursday, only a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, as the upper ridge continues to build further east across the Central U.S. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across western and north central Nebraska through the period. Scattered rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to track eastward out of eastern Wyoming and northeast Colorado through the overnight bringing mid-level clouds to the area. Minimal impacts to site KLBF are expected with the activity, though gusty winds may be possible. The activity should taper off through the afternoon on Friday. Will rely heavily on radar and satellite for subsequent TAFs. Otherwise, light and variable winds persist through much of the period at generally 10kts or less. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Viken