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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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464 FXUS63 KLBF 112318 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across western Nebraska this evening, mainly west of Highway 83. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains for north central Nebraska. Primary threats remain wind and hail, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. - Near daily risk of showers and thunderstorms across the area through Thursday, with the potential for beneficial rainfall. - Temperatures gradually warm and return to near seasonal normals by mid week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level analysis and water vapor satellite imagery reveal a shortwave trough south central Wyoming, providing upper level lift for this afternoon and evening`s severe storm threat. At the surface, a low pressure system is located in southeast Wyoming, with a warm front through the Nebraska Panhandle. A large area of stratus has slowly moved eastward, mostly along and east of Highway 83. This stratus deck has limited daytime heating potential, keeping temperatures on the cooler side for daytime highs and also limiting the build up of CAPE across western Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Convective initiation is underway across portions of southwest South Dakota and southeast Wyoming this afternoon. Although the persistent stratus today limited the building of CAPE, recent clearing has allowed for some build up of MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg across portions of the Panhandle. Effective shear values remain quite supportive of severe weather this afternoon and evening. The environment continues to ripen for supercell activity later this afternoon and evening. While the primary threats remain for large hail and damaging wind gusts, the low level helicity may be enhanced enough in vicinity of the warm front to the point that a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Another thing worth keeping an eye on with thunderstorms this evening will be the rain potential. PWAT values around 1.25 inches fall between the 75th and 90th percentile for early August, so storms could be quite efficient rain producers. Expecting the higher rain amounts will be across north central Nebraska this evening with more training and clustering cells moving in from South Dakota. In general, expecting between half an inch to one inch, though locally heavier amounts are possible. As storms move out tonight, stratus clouds return overnight, keeping overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. With recent rainfall and fairly light winds, there is a decent chance for patchy fog to develop overnight, mainly along and south of Interstate 80. For Monday, an upper level ridge will attempt to push in from the west and attempt to settle over western Nebraska. A shortwave pushing through the upper level flow may provide enough upper level support for a surface boundary to generate storms across eastern Wyoming and Colorado. Storms should continue to push eastward into southwest Nebraska, bringing another chance of precipitation. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level ridging is expected to be fully settled over western Nebraska by early Tuesday morning. Guidance picks up on a few embedded shortwaves tracking through the upper level flow throughout the week. This will keep a near daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across western and north central Nebraska through Thursday. This is further reinforced by decent low level moisture advection through the week, so certainly could bring beneficial rainfall across the region. By late week, another ridge begins to set up, which begins to limit the rain chances to around 20 percent. Also worth mentioning, as the shortwaves continue to push through this week, this should help limit temperatures a little bit under the ridging. Expecting that temperatures will warm up, but only to near seasonal average through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Early TAF concerns center around ongoing convection and how it will impact TAF sites. Expect clouds over KLBF will limit potential for severe storms but still may see some convective remnants during the first couple of hours. KVTN is more unstable but severe convection has made a right turn and is diving south of the airfield. However additional thunderstorms are still upstream and will affect the airfield during the next couple of hours. Following the early convection, anticipate a brief period of VFR conditions before stratus/fog develop with IFR expected to persist through daybreak and into Monday morning. A return to VFR conditions is expected through the latter portion of the valid period as the low clouds/fog dissipate by mid morning. Winds will generally be light at 10kt or less, though strong/erratic wind gusts can be expected near any thunderstorms. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Richie SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...MBS