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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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520 FXUS63 KLBF 120907 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 407 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dense fog will continue through mid-morning mainly across southwest Nebraska with visibilities down to 1/4 mile at times. * Mild, slightly below normal temperatures are expected through next weekend with highs in the 80s. * Near daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected through the middle of next week with the best chance of severe storms on Tuesday evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Dense fog is currently underway across southwest Nebraska and portions of north central Nebraska. Latest observations show visibilities dropping to near 1/4 of a mile at times which has prompted a Dense Fog Advisory across the extreme southwest counties. Plenty of low level moisture and light winds will keep fog around through mid-morning. As the sun rises and the boundary layer mixes, fog will gradually diminish. A brief dry period is expected for the remainder of the morning hours and into mid afternoon. By late afternoon to early evening, isolated rain and thunderstorms return. Confidence remains low on development and track at this time as thunderstorms initiate off the Front Ranges and slowly push eastward. Model consensus is on the lower end with some of the latest runs showing the majority of thunderstorms remaining just to the south of our area, whereas others have some isolated activity making it into Chase, Hayes, and Perkins county. At this time, not expecting widespread severe storms but some isolated stronger storms across the southwest is entirely possible. Large hail and briefly strong winds are possible in these thunderstorms. Significant low level moisture will be present once again across the region due to recent rainfall. As winds diminish and any storms move out of the region after sunset, the environment will become favorable for fog development again on Monday night. This time development will be favored across north central and central Nebraska with mainly patchy fog expected. However, some denser fog is possible along the river valleys and low lying areas. At this time, no headlines are expected, but this may change as visibility drops overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A fairly active weather pattern remains in place through the end of the week as a series of disturbances continues to impact the region. At this time, the severe risk remains low with the exception of Tuesday. On Tuesday, a shortwave will move across Nebraska and, along with increased low level moisture, will help to promote convection across the High Plains. Details on timing and location of development are still a bit hazy, but with steep low level lapse rates and enough instability across the region, any thunderstorm that does develop will have the potential to become severe. At this time, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Drier and more quiet weather returns for the weekend as upper level ridging begins to build across the central US. For temperatures, after a few days of below normal temperatures, a return to near to slightly below normal is on the horizon. A few more breaks in the clouds combined with weak warm air advection will allow for high temperatures to return to the low to mid 80s with some locations hitting the upper 80s through the weekend which is near normal (normal in the upper 80s). Low temperatures will follow a similar pattern dropping into the mid to upper 50s which is slightly below normal as well (normal lows in the upper 50s to low 60s). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Widespread stratus and fog remains prevalent across much of western and north central Nebraska. This is leading to degraded flight conditions including IFR and LIFR categories. Expect IFR and LIFR conditions to increase across the area as stratus gradually lowers and fog increases. Ceilings will likely fall to < 500 ft AGL including visibilities below 1SM for many locations, including LBF. Have a fairly prolonged period of LIFR at LBF lasting through sunrise before conditions improve. While similar conditions are likely at VTN, confidence in a longer duration event is low so will cover with a TEMPO group for LIFR CIGs and vsbys for now. Expect a return to VFR by midday Monday with only mid-level and high-level clouds expected through the end of the forecast period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ056>058-069-070. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...NMJ