499
FXUS63 KLBF 121737
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dense fog will continue through mid-morning mainly across
  southwest Nebraska with visibilities down to 1/4 mile at times.

* Mild, slightly below normal temperatures are expected through next
  weekend with highs in the 80s.

* Near daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected through
  the middle of next week with the best chance of severe storms
  on Tuesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Dense fog is currently underway across southwest Nebraska and
portions of north central Nebraska. Latest observations show
visibilities dropping to near 1/4 of a mile at times which has
prompted a Dense Fog Advisory across the extreme southwest counties.
Plenty of low level moisture and light winds will keep fog around
through mid-morning. As the sun rises and the boundary layer mixes,
fog will gradually diminish.

A brief dry period is expected for the remainder of the morning
hours and into mid afternoon. By late afternoon to early evening,
isolated rain and thunderstorms return. Confidence remains low on
development and track at this time as thunderstorms initiate off the
Front Ranges and slowly push eastward. Model consensus is on the
lower end with some of the latest runs showing the majority of
thunderstorms remaining just to the south of our area, whereas
others have some isolated activity making it into Chase, Hayes, and
Perkins county. At this time, not expecting widespread severe storms
but some isolated stronger storms across the southwest is entirely
possible. Large hail and briefly strong winds are possible in these
thunderstorms.

Significant low level moisture will be present once again across the
region due to recent rainfall. As winds diminish and any storms move
out of the region after sunset, the environment will become
favorable for fog development again on Monday night. This time
development will be favored across north central and central
Nebraska with mainly patchy fog expected. However, some denser fog
is possible along the river valleys and low lying areas. At this
time, no headlines are expected, but this may change as visibility
drops overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

A fairly active weather pattern remains in place through the end of
the week as a series of disturbances continues to impact the region.
At this time, the severe risk remains low with the exception of
Tuesday. On Tuesday, a shortwave will move across Nebraska and,
along with increased low level moisture, will help to promote
convection across the High Plains. Details on timing and location of
development are still a bit hazy, but with steep low level lapse
rates and enough instability across the region, any thunderstorm
that does develop will have the potential to become severe. At this
time, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Drier
and more quiet weather returns for the weekend as upper level
ridging begins to build across the central US.

For temperatures, after a few days of below normal temperatures, a
return to near to slightly below normal is on the horizon. A few
more breaks in the clouds combined with weak warm air advection will
allow for high temperatures to return to the low to mid 80s with
some locations hitting the upper 80s through the weekend which is
near normal (normal in the upper 80s). Low temperatures will follow
a similar pattern dropping into the mid to upper 50s which is
slightly below normal as well (normal lows in the upper 50s to low
60s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the areas of clouds over
western Nebraska generally clearing, which will lead to an increase
from MVFR to VFR ceilings over the next few hours. Tonight, another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected, leaving another
stratus deck in their wake, which could lower conditions down to IFR
across portions of southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills. Along with
the stratus, fog is expected to develop again overnight, which could
cause some visibility concerns in the morning. In general, expecting
MVFR to IFR conditions tomorrow morning, though LIFR conditions
could be observed across the region.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Richie