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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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612 FXUS63 KLBF 130600 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Abundant moisture may cause thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rainfall tonight and again Tuesday. - Isolated severe storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The primary hazards are large hail and wind damage. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A fairly strong UA disturbance moving through ern WY this afternoon is the basis for chance to likely POPS across wrn Nebraska tonight. Satellite shows a second disturbance across nrn UT this afternoon and the RAP model shows both disturbances sweeping through wrn and scntl Nebraska tonight. The forecast uses a full blend of models, some of which, like the GFS, show a "wet foot" across wrn Nebraska while others, like the NAM show little or no rainfall. The reason for this is a second area of organized thunderstorms will likely form across the Palmer divide where the dynamics are weaker but the focus is better. Some models suggest only one area of significant rainfall will occur- across Colo. It worth noting satellite shows an separate UA disturbance across wrn Colo which will move east and intercept the ongoing convection across ern Colo/KS late tonight. The drier model solutions across Nebraska tonight are wetter across KS and Colo. The forecast wagers the strong dynamics across WY, UT and Colo will support significant rain chances across Nebraska and Colo/KS. Thunderstorm chances are in place again Tuesday evening and overnight for dynamics lifting east-northeast through Colo and Nebraska. Water vapor and the models indicate a TUTT or tropical upper tropospheric trof across AZ plus a disturbance off the coast of nrn CA moving east-northeast. The models will phase these disturbances across Colo/WY Tuesday presenting very favorable upper level support. The main upper low is far north across MT and this should be strong enough to drive a warm front through wrn/ncntl Nebraska after sunrise Wednesday morning. For the system Tuesday, we have focus, moisture and upper level support. Chance/likely POPs for this event follow the dynamics favoring swrn and ncntl Nebraska. For both events, the models are in good agreement ramping up PWAT to 1.50 inches or higher and BUFkit indicates significant warm precipitation processes to around 11kft. Severe weather risks are marginal both days and this is mainly forced by strong 0-6km shear 25-40 kts. The 0-8km is much stronger, 40-60 kts and given the modest instability, MLCAPE 2000-3000j/kg, isolated severe storms would be the most likely concern. Out of all the forecast features now through Wednesday morning, severe weather is the most uncertain. The reason for this is the lack of sfc focus and low level warm air advection which is anchored well south across KS, south of a sfc cold front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The upper level ridge of subtropical high pressure centered over north Texas will drift east into LA this week and then migrate west and amplify across NM this weekend and beyond. Nebraska will likely remain under the belt of strong westerlies, or northwesterly winds surrounding the ridge. More important is subtropical moisture appears to be rotating around the ridge, moving through Nebraska on many days. This would support at least an isolated thunderstorm chance and a scattered chance if a disturbance was present. Temperatures at h700mb will warm to around 15C Saturday and remain there through Monday. The reason for this is the upper level ridge will amplify north into the cntl Rockies but it`s worth noting mixing heights may not reach 700mb, especially if a backdoor cold front moves into Nebraska as shown by the models. The temperature forecast is relatively modest featuring highs in the 80s to near 90 next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Low stratus and patchy fog will again be problematic for area terminals to start early Tuesday. High level clouds continue to track into the area from ongoing and developing convection to the south and west. Recent observations have shown decreasing CIGs at area terminals. This is likely to continue as weak convection approaches from the west. Support for this convection is poor, so a weakening trend is expected. This casts doubts on direct impacts at either terminal so will omit mention at this time. Ceilings will continue to drop with MVFR then IFR conditions likely at LBF. Fog will also be possible, but visibility restrictions are not anticipated to be as severe as Monday morning. Beyond late morning, CIGs will improve but potential exists for LBF to see MVFR or worse criteria all day. Additional MVFR and even IFR CIGs are possible late in the period with a return to IFR conditions not ruled out. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...NMJ