486
FXUS63 KLBF 131138
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
638 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Patchy fog will continue through mid-morning mainly across
  southwest Nebraska with visibilities down to 2 miles at times.

* A Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is possible
  this evening across southwest and north central Nebraska with
  large hail and strong winds being the main threats.

* Near daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
  end of the week, although, the severe potential remains uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Patchy fog will continue to overspread the region impacting mainly
southwest Nebraska (along and south of I-80). Latest observations
show visibilities dropping to near 4 miles at times although, still
expected a bit more development, which may allow visibilities to
drop to near 2 miles (locally lower in river valleys and low lying
areas). Plenty of low level moisture and light winds will keep fog
around through mid-morning before diminishing after the sun rises
and the boundary layer mixes.

The main weather concern in the short term will be the potential for
severe thunderstorms this evening across much of southwest and
portions of north central Nebraska. With a frontal boundary located
across northern Colorado and into Kansas, storms will initiate just
to the north across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska and
push eastward through the evening. Moderate instability will exist
across Nebraska this evening along with plenty of low level moisture
creating a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. In
addition, any convection will be aided by a strengthening low level
jet. Main threats with these storms will initially be large hail as
storms remain discrete before becoming a damaging wind threat later
in the evening. Storms are expected to exit the region to the east
early Wednesday morning (2 to 5am CT). Widespread flooding is not
expected to be a concern, but some low lying areas or streams could
see some rises as rain falls on an already saturated ground.

In addition, significant low level moisture will be present once
again across the region due to recent rainfall and thunderstorms. As
winds diminish and any storms move out of the region by late
evening, the environment will become favorable for fog development
again on Monday night. This time development will be favored across
north central and central Nebraska with mainly patchy fog expected.
However, some denser fog is possible along the river valleys and low
lying areas. At this time, no headlines are expected, but this may
change as visibility drops overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

A fairly active weather pattern remains in place through the end of
the week as a series of disturbances continues to impact the region.
At this time, the best chance for severe storms in the extended
period will be on Wednesday evening as plenty of moisture exists and
the low level jet strengthens. At this time the main concern will be
stronger winds as thunderstorms develop and begin to form a
convective line. Although, there is also the possibility of an
isolated tornado, especially if a discrete supercell can develop
early and take full advantage of the ample instability. For the rest
of the week, will continue to monitor trends over the next few days
regarding severe potential.

Temperatures return to near to slightly below normal as temperatures
climb into the low to mid 80s with some locations hitting the upper
80s through the weekend. These highs will be near to slightly below
normal (normal in the upper 80s). Low temperatures will also be
slightly below normal (normal lows in the upper 50s to low 60s) as
they are forecasted to drop into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Low stratus and patchy fog plagues area terminals early Tuesday
morning.

Persistent cloudiness has led to another morning of IFR and LIFR
conditions, mainly due to CIGs, for many area terminals. The
lone exception south of Highway 2 has been LBF, which has
managed to find a hole in the clouds and is an island of VFR.
Satellite imagery shows this hole closing quick, and current
thinking is the terminal should return IFR and even some LIFR
conditions for a brief period early in the period. CIGs will
gradually improve across the board, with a return to at least
MVFR if not low-end VFR during the afternoon.

Thunderstorms will approach from the west late tonight, with
impacts most likely at LBF and less likely at VTN. Locally heavy
rain and low CIGs will again reintroduce MVFR if not IFR
conditions for a brief period. Low stratus in the wake of storms
may infiltrate the area though at what magnitude remains
somewhat in question so will limit mention to MVFR for now with
greater impacts possible with later forecasts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...NMJ