155
FXUS63 KLBF 081149
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
649 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will continue
  through the end of the workweek.

- Isolated severe storms will be possible today and Wednesday
  but widespread severe weather is not expected. Thursday evening/night
  stands the greatest likelihood for at least a few severe
  storms.

- Warm and humid conditions will give way to drier and somewhat
  cooler air by Friday into Saturday.

- Warming temperatures expected Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Upper level ridge will continue to persist across the southwest
portions of the U.S. Northwest flow aloft will continue across our
region on the northeastern periphery of the ridge. Winds aloft
decrease some today, with no real defined disturbance noted within
the mid/upper flow. Still, isolated diurnally driven convection
appears it will develop in a favorable upslope environment across
the Neb. Panhandle late this afternoon. Due to the lack of much
upper level forcing, CAMS show a variety of scenarios. It appears
that the consensus is for at least isolated thunderstorms to move
east from the Panhandle east/southeastward across much of the area
tonight. Confidence is not high and will keep POPS on the low side.
Southeast low-level flow atop southeast mid/upper flow would support
some storm organization...so cannot rule out an isolated
strong/severe storm through the evening hours. This would most
likely remain west of Hwy 183.

A somewhat more robust threat for severe storms could materialize
Wednesday evening. A weak shortwave disturbance will approach the
western Neb. by late in the afternoon. Winds aloft increase somewhat
compared to today, with continued moist low-level southeast flow at
the surface. With the increased winds aloft, overall shear looks
better for storm organization, with further support from the weak
disturbance approaching the area. Appears initial storm development
would be within favorable upslope low-level flow regime across
northwest Neb. Storms would then track southeastward across the area
Wednesday evening. At least some support for supercell
characteristics to evolve. Still, coverage looks limited even with
the better overall environment. Will continue to monitor.

The upper level ridging begins to flatten Thursday with a stronger
wave emerging from the Rockies into the area Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night. A cold front will be associated with this wave and
will be the focus for more widespread thunderstorm development. A
few severe storms also appear possible. PWATS increase to near 1.50
inches in the pre-storm environment, so locally heavy rainfall could
become an issue.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Cooler weather is expected in a post-frontal environment Friday into
Saturday. Scattered showery weather looks possible Friday with mid-
level FGEN developing as cooler air aloft filters into the area.
This weakens by Saturday with rain chances decreasing/ending.

As mentioned it will be cooler, with highs Friday only forecast to
reach the lower 70s across portions of northwest Neb. Most areas
should be around 80F on Saturday. Upper level ridging then begins to
nose northeastward across the desert southwest Sunday into
Monday...with a return to highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all of western and
north central Nebraska today and tonight. Isolated late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across most of
the area. Winds will be southeast at 5-15 kts this afternoon through
tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor