Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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866
FXUS63 KLBF 020815
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
315 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions today and Thursday.

- The next significant chance for showers and thunderstorms
  arrives on Friday into Friday night. No severe storms are
  expected, although locally heavy rain and lightning will be
  the main concerns for Independence Day celebrations.

- Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night through Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A system with showers and thunderstorms tracked across the
Sandhills Tuesday evening into the early morning hours today
and was currently tracking east of central Nebraska. Rainfall
amounts from quarter to a half inch with a few locations over
three quarter of an inch have been reported. Skies have cleared
out across western Nebraska with temperatures in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

An upper ridge will remain centered over the Texas Gulf Coast
with the upper ridge building into the Northern and Central
Plains today. This will bring warm air advection and sunny skies
across the region with highs today across the area reaching 92
to 96 degrees. With surface low pressure deepening across
Wyoming and Colorado, another day of southerly winds 10 to 15
mph. The upper ridge influence will keep dry conditions across
the forecast area through tonight.

Thursday, the upper ridge will still remain in place across the
region, although an upper trough will advance across the Central
and Southern Rockies. A tighter H7 gradient will bring stronger
southerly winds from 15 to 30 mph. Still very warm with highs
in the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Deterministic models keep western Nebraska mainly dry Thursday
evening, with mostly a slight chance overnight. Southwest flow
aloft and modest instability 500-1000 J/kg exist, though deep
layer shear is weak at only 5 to 15 kts. Therefore, only general
thunderstorms are possible and coverage looks isolated across
the west.

The latest guidance continues to point toward a higher probability
of scattered thunderstorm development on Friday and Friday
night as an upper trough and Pacific cold front crosses the
region. PWATs are forecast to increase to 1.5 to over 1.75
inches. An NBM probabilities over a half inch range from 25 to
35 percent for the 12-hr period Friday afternoon and evening for
areas east of Ogallala through O`Neill. The severe potential
looks low at this time with general thunderstorms forecast by
SPC. Coverage will likely be scattered, with lightning and
locally heavy rainfall possible with the heavier storms. Timing
of storms favor the late afternoon and into the evening which
may unfortunately impact holiday celebrations. Stay tuned to
later forecasts as models come into better agreement on storm
coverage and impacts.

There should be a break in thunderstorms Saturday with dry
conditions expected in the wake of the system Friday night.
Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Storm chances return
Saturday night through Tuesday with Gulf moisture in place as
the upper flow remains fairly zonal. Highs from the mid 80s to
low 90s and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Through 08z overnight, there will be a threat for showers in the
vicinity of the KLBF terminal. At this time, thunderstorms are
expected to remain well off to the north of the KLBF terminal. After
08z overnight skies will become mostly clear and will remain
there over the next 24 hours. A few high clouds will be
possible on Wednesday with ceilings around 25000 FT AGL. Winds
will be from the south or south- southwest over the next 24
hours at 10 to 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler