364
FXUS63 KLBF 062037
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this
  evening across most of the Sandhills, western, and
  southwestern Nebraska. Significant damaging wind gusts will be
  the primary threat, though large hail and an isolated tornado
  cannot be ruled out.

- An Enhanced Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across all of western and north central Nebraska Monday
  afternoon and evening. The main hazard is expected to be gusts
  up to 75 mph. However, large hail 2 inches or greater in
  diameter is also possible, as well as isolated tornadoes.

- A cold front tracks through the region Thursday night,
  bringing temperatures back below seasonal average. This front
  also brings our next chances for severe weather, however the
  exact threats are still uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

An area of atmospheric subsidence is noted in the wake of this
morning`s convection across the region. Clear skies in the wake will
allow the rebuilding of atmospheric instability across western
Nebraska this afternoon into the evening, supporting the second
round of expected thunderstorms. Already, a severe thunderstorm
watch is out across portions of western Nebraska, eastern Wyoming,
and northeastern Colorado, with new cell development ongoing across
the higher terrain. As storms track east late this afternoon and
into the evening, competition amongst the various updrafts, as well
as stronger 850 mb winds out of the south should help congeal storms
into a linear system as it tracks across the Nebraska Panhandle and
into southwest and south central Nebraska. As this new line of
storms tracks across the region, damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat, with some of the wind gusts potentially exceeding 75
miles per hour. As such, the Storm Prediction Center maintains the
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across the Sandhills, western, and
southwestern Nebraska, with an outlook for significant damaging wind
gusts. However, with the instability across the region, the threat
for large hail has not completely vanished. A few of the stronger
cells in the line may still have the potential to produce some
larger hail, however it is now less likely that these potential
hailstones exceed 2 inches in diameter. Will still need to keep an
eye on a narrow tornado threat as storms interact with the low level
jet this evening, as low level shear may be sufficient to produce an
isolated tornado.

Another volatile environment is expected across the region tomorrow,
with an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) across all of western and north
central Nebraska. Similar to today, there will be ample moisture
across the region, and sufficient deep layer shear to support
organized convection. However, increasing the chances for more
widespread convection tomorrow will the presence of a frontal
boundary as it enters the region. With better lift across the
region, may see some of the initial cells developing start as
supercells by late afternoon. If the storms can remain discrete, the
threat increases for large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter as
well as a threat for tornadoes. As the evening progresses, storms
are expected to transition to a more linear mode, decreasing the
threat for large hail and tornadoes, but drastically increasing the
risk for significant damaging wind gusts, potentially exceeding 75
mph. This line of storms is expected to track out of the region
around midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Upper level flow builds into a ridge over the Dakotas on Tuesday.
This sets up a brief pattern for near to slightly warmer than
average temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Wednesday appears to be the warmest day this week, with highs mostly
in the low to mid 90s across the region. Though there may be a few
surface disturbances tracking across the region, precipitation
chances remain low Tuesday and Wednesday, generally below 20
percent.

On Thursday, as the ridge breaks down, a cold front will track
across the Dakotas, potentially bringing a return of cooler
temperatures Friday and Saturday and a potential for additional
thunderstorms. Worth mentioning that the SPC has already issued a 15
percent chance outlook for severe thunderstorms on Thursday across
portions of northern Nebraska. Moisture advection is expected ahead
of the front, ushering in dewpoints in the mid 60s. With warm
temperatures also expected on Thursday, there should be sufficient
instability for strong to severe storms, though the exact convective
mode is still a bit uncertain. Until this becomes more clear, the
exact threats will also remain uncertain. Will continue to monitor
forecast trends to narrow down Thursday`s forecast. Certainly a day
that merits watching for thunderstorms in the long term, though.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected outside of convection today.

Lingering light rain will impact KVTN for the next hour or so
with the departure of the morning convective complex across
north central Nebraska. Later convection this afternoon is
largely expected to miss the site, however impacts are expected
at KLBF. The line of storms is anticipated around 02-04z with at
least MVFR restrictions. Near-term amendments later today will
account for most recent trends. Site will quickly return to VFR
behind the storms.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Hagenhoff