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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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811 FXUS63 KLBF 142315 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 615 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening across the western Sandhills and overnight across the northwest Sandhills. - A slight chance for thunderstorms Thursday across north central Nebraska. - Limited thunderstorm chances Friday through Sunday, with better chances arriving Sunday night through Monday night. - Highs warming to the upper 80s to mid 90s this weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Surface low pressure was centered south of Pierre, SD. A weak cold front has advances through western Nebraska, including Valentine and North Platte. Isolated showers lingered over the far eastern zones. Temperatures has warmed to around 90 at Thedford and Valentine just behind the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Tonight, a weak cold front will pass through the remainder of the area this evening. Mesoscale models indicate isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening across the western Sandhills, mainly west of Highway 61, then overnight across the northwest Sandhills. Thursday, an upper trough will move from the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. This will steepen H85-H7 lapse rates to near 9C/km across north central Nebraska. The HREF ensemble indicates at least some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop and have a slight chance forecast from Cherry County eastward through the day. While temperatures aloft will be slightly cooler, deep mixing will occur with northwest winds 10 to 20 mph across the north. Went slightly warmer than the NBM, using the CONSShort for highs in the mid 80s, to near 90 in Frontier County. Thursday night, a weak disturbance will cross sern WY and CO and bring 20 to 30 POPs to the southwestern zones after midnight. Lows 55 to 60. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The upper trough over the Great Lakes on Friday will slowly move into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. An upper ridge centered over New Mexico will gradually build into the Central Plains. This will bring a warmup for the weekend into the upper 80s to mid 90s. The hottest temperatures will remain across the west. Chance for showers and thunderstorms will be very limited with most locations to remain dry. Sunday night through Monday night look to be more active. Gulf moisture will be in place, with nocturnal convection favored as "ridge runners" develop east of the upper ridge axis over the Central Plains. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate the potential for locally heavy rainfall if small MCSs develop. Tuesday and Wednesday to remain warm from 85 to 90. Storm chances remain possible, though limited to mainly a slight chance. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow evening across western and north central Nebraska. Isolated thunderstorms persist across portions of north central Nebraska this evening, ending tonight. Winds shift from southerly to northwest into tomorrow, at around 5 to 15kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Brown