138
FXUS63 KLBF 092343
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
  across much of central and northern Nebraska. Damaging wind
  gusts (some 75+ mph) and hail are the primary hazards.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are again possible across much
  of western and north central Nebraska Thursday afternoon and
  evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
  threats, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday behind a
  cold front, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
  Temperatures quickly warm back to the 80s/low 90s by Sunday
  and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Currently, scattered thunderstorms have formed over the Black Hills,
with towering cumulus noted further south into the northern Nebraska
Panhandle. This towering cumulus is in association with a dryline
positioned across the western Panhandle. Off to the east into the
Sandhills and north central Nebraska, temperatures have warmed into
the lower 90s, amid dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s. This is
promoting ample buoyancy across the area, with MLCAPE values of
~2000-3000 J/kg. Unlike in previous days, increasing flow aloft is
leading to better deep layer shear, on the order of 30-40kts. This
suggests updrafts should have a better chance at fighting off dry
air entrainment, with similarly dry LFC-LCL RH to previous nights.

For this evening and tonight, expect initial scattered thunderstorms
over northwest Nebraska and southwest SD to grow upscale with time
as they move southeast into the Sandhills. These storms will likely
pose a threat for damaging winds, with inverted-v thermodynamic
profiles promoting DCAPE values in excess of 1800 J/kg across much
of the area. Recent high-resolution guidance solutions point towards
a risk of significant (75+ mph) gusts for portions of the area,
especially in any bowing segments. The threat for this appears to be
maximized east of HWY 61 and along/north of HWY 2, where storm
coverage should be greatest. This threat may extend further
southwest into southwestern Nebraska, though confidence in this
remains low for now. Regardless, an increasing risk for significant
wind gusts is evident this evening for portions of central and north
central Nebraska. Some threat for hail will exist at least initially
across western Nebraska, before storms grow upscale with time.

Storms exit the area tonight, with a brief lull in precipitation
expected into tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, a surface low
will begin to eject east across the area, dragging a cold front from
west to east. Ahead of this feature, scattered to widespread
thunderstorm development is expected, with some threat again for
strong to severe thunderstorms. This threat will largely be driven
by what degree we can destabilize tomorrow afternoon. Convective
debris from this evening`s activity will be a big factor in this,
and leads to lowered confidence. Still, should adequate
destabilization occur, ample deep layer shear along with good low-
level hodograph curvature (as low level flow backs ahead of the
surface low) suggests at least some threat for multicells/supercells
initially. Much like today, eventual upscale growth would be
favored, and lead to an increasing threat for damaging winds
tomorrow evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

The cold front begins to clear the area into Friday, ushering in
much cooler highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for Saturday. Recent
guidance has hinted at a slower progression of this cold front, and
this would point to one more evening of thunderstorm potential
locally. As with previous nights, cannot rule out some severe
storms, and this will need to be monitored. A quick warmup is then
expected by Sunday into the upper 80s and low 90s, as southerly flow
returns to the area. This also coincides with a return of zonal flow
aloft into next week, with guidance hinting at a few shortwaves
progressing across the area in the mean flow aloft. This should
bring a return of thunderstorms to the area into midweek, and any
threat for severe weather will need to be monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move southeastward
through the evening hours. Strong, erratic winds as well as small
hail will be possible in these storms. Visibility restrictions down
to 5 miles at times due to falling rain should be expected. Storms
push out of the region by 06Z with a gradual return to VFR
conditions.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Kulik