170
FXUS63 KLBF 141953
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
253 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening across the
  western Sandhills and overnight across the northwest
  Sandhills.

- A slight chance for thunderstorms Thursday across north
  central Nebraska.

- Limited thunderstorm chances Friday through Sunday, with
  better chances arriving Sunday night through Monday night.

- Highs warming to the upper 80s to mid 90s this weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Surface low pressure was centered south of Pierre, SD. A weak
cold front has advances through western Nebraska, including
Valentine and North Platte. Isolated showers lingered over the
far eastern zones. Temperatures has warmed to around 90
at Thedford and Valentine just behind the frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Tonight, a weak cold front will pass through the remainder of
the area this evening. Mesoscale models indicate isolated
showers and thunderstorms this evening across the western
Sandhills, mainly west of Highway 61, then overnight across the
northwest Sandhills.

Thursday, an upper trough will move from the Northern Plains
into the western Great Lakes. This will steepen H85-H7 lapse
rates to near 9C/km across north central Nebraska. The HREF
ensemble indicates at least some isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop and have a slight chance
forecast from Cherry County eastward through the day. While
temperatures aloft will be slightly cooler, deep mixing will
occur with northwest winds 10 to 20 mph across the north. Went
slightly warmer than the NBM, using the CONSShort for highs in
the mid 80s, to near 90 in Frontier County.

Thursday night, a weak disturbance will cross sern WY and CO and
bring 20 to 30 POPs to the southwestern zones after midnight.
Lows 55 to 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The upper trough over the Great Lakes on Friday will slowly
move into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. An
upper ridge centered over New Mexico will gradually build into
the Central Plains. This will bring a warmup for the weekend
into the upper 80s to mid 90s. The hottest temperatures will
remain across the west. Chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be very limited with most locations to remain dry.

Sunday night through Monday night look to be more active. Gulf
moisture will be in place, with nocturnal convection favored as
"ridge runners" develop east of the upper ridge axis over the
Central Plains. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate the potential
for locally heavy rainfall if small MCSs develop.

Tuesday and Wednesday to remain warm from 85 to 90. Storm
chances remain possible, though limited to mainly a slight
chance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through tonight into Thursday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening,
but widespread activity is not expected. Winds will gradually
shift to the northwest at 5-15 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor