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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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746 FXUS63 KLBF 151801 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 101 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Patchy fog will continue through mid-morning across north central Nebraska with visibilities down to 1 mile at times. * Marginal risk (risk 1 of 5) of isolated thunderstorms are expected across north central Nebraska this afternoon and again tonight/Friday morning across southwest Nebraska with strong winds being the main threat both timeframes. * Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the middle of next week as highs rise into the mid 80s to low 90s and lows drop into the upper 50s to low 60s. * Near daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week, although, the severe potential remains uncertain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Patchy fog will continue to overspread portions of north central Nebraska in the wake of some light convection and showers. Latest observations show visibilities dropping to near 1 mile at times (locally lower in river valleys and low lying areas). Plenty of low level moisture and light winds will keep fog around through mid- morning before diminishing after the sun rises and the boundary layer mixes. While the majority of Thursday will be pleasant and dry, there is a potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern north central Nebraska this afternoon. A upper level trough will track across the region helping to initiate some convection across the north. With moderate instability and plenty of low level moisture across this area, some of these storms may become strong to briefly severe before pushing into eastern Nebraska by late afternoon. Strong winds up to 50 mph will be the main threat, however, some small hail (under an inch), is possible with this afternoon convection. In addition, some diurnally driven convection is expected to develop off the Front Ranges and push eastward during the evening hours. The majority of these thunderstorms will be to the south (across Kansas) but a few storms may graze extreme southwest Nebraska (Chase, Perkins, Hayes counties). Again, storms will generally be just below severe limits, but with plenty of low level moisture combined with a strengthening low level jet in the evening, a stronger to briefly severe storm may still be possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 60 mph will be possible during the evening hours. These storms may last into sunrise Friday morning before diminishing by late morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A fairly active weather pattern remains in place through the end of the middle of next week as a series of disturbances continues to impact the region. Near-daily thunderstorm and rain chances are expected, occurring mainly in the late afternoon and early evening as they will be primarily diurnally driven. At this time, the best chance for thunderstorm development will occur on Sunday and Monday nights, but any thunderstorms that develop are not anticipated to become severe. Will continue to monitor the environment over the next few days as the models get a better handle on these systems. Temperatures will remain near normal in the mid 80s to low 90s through next week. Low temperatures will also be near to slightly above normal (normal lows in the upper 50s to low 60s) as they are forecasted to drop into upper 50s to mid 60s through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A cluster of thunderstorms is moving eastward out of north central Nebraska. Additional isolated thunderstorms could develop across the Panhandle into western Nebraska this afternoon. Gusty winds would be a threat with these. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail area wide. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Taylor