746
FXUS63 KLBF 151801
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
101 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Patchy fog will continue through mid-morning across north
  central Nebraska with visibilities down to 1 mile at times.

* Marginal risk (risk 1 of 5) of isolated thunderstorms are expected
  across north central Nebraska this afternoon and again
  tonight/Friday morning across southwest Nebraska with strong winds
  being the main threat both timeframes.


* Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through
  the middle of next week as highs rise into the mid 80s to low 90s
  and lows drop into the upper 50s to low 60s.

* Near daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
  end of the week, although, the severe potential remains uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Patchy fog will continue to overspread portions of north central
Nebraska in the wake of some light convection and showers. Latest
observations show visibilities dropping to near 1 mile at times
(locally lower in river valleys and low lying areas). Plenty of low
level moisture and light winds will keep fog around through mid-
morning before diminishing after the sun rises and the boundary
layer mixes.

While the majority of Thursday will be pleasant and dry, there is a
potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms across
northern north central Nebraska this afternoon. A upper level trough
will track across the region helping to initiate some convection
across the north. With moderate instability and plenty of low level
moisture across this area, some of these storms may become strong to
briefly severe before pushing into eastern Nebraska by late
afternoon. Strong winds up to 50 mph will be the main threat,
however, some small hail (under an inch), is possible with this
afternoon convection.

In addition, some diurnally driven convection is expected to develop
off the Front Ranges and push eastward during the evening hours. The
majority of these thunderstorms will be to the south (across Kansas)
but a few storms may graze extreme southwest Nebraska (Chase,
Perkins, Hayes counties). Again, storms will generally be just below
severe limits, but with plenty of low level moisture combined with a
strengthening low level jet in the evening, a stronger to briefly
severe storm may still be possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 60
mph will be possible during the evening hours. These storms may last
into sunrise Friday morning before diminishing by late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A fairly active weather pattern remains in place through the end of
the middle of next week as a series of disturbances continues to
impact the region. Near-daily thunderstorm and rain chances are
expected, occurring mainly in the late afternoon and early evening
as they will be primarily diurnally driven. At this time, the best
chance for thunderstorm development will occur on Sunday and Monday
nights, but any thunderstorms that develop are not anticipated to
become severe. Will continue to monitor the environment over the
next few days as the models get a better handle on these systems.

Temperatures will remain near normal in the mid 80s to low 90s
through next week. Low temperatures will also be near to slightly
above normal (normal lows in the upper 50s to low 60s) as they are
forecasted to drop into upper 50s to mid 60s through next
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A cluster of thunderstorms is moving eastward out of north
central Nebraska. Additional isolated thunderstorms could
develop across the Panhandle into western Nebraska this
afternoon. Gusty winds would be a threat with these. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions to prevail area wide.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Taylor