Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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483 FXUS63 KLBF 142018 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 318 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dangerous heat continues through Monday with heat advisories in effect as heat indices rise above 100 degrees. * A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is possible on Monday evening across the Panhandle and portions of southwest Nebraska. Large hail and strong winds will be the main threats. * A marginal risk (risk level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across much of the Panhandle, southwest Nebraska, and the Sandhills with strong winds and heavy rainfall being the main threats. * Cooler temperatures return on Tuesday lasting through next weekend as highs fall back into the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The main concern through Monday will be the extremely hot temperatures. Latest models suggest 850 mb temperatures well into the 28 to 32 degree C range which will result in surface high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This combined with increasing surface dewpoints will allow for heat indices to rise to dangerous levels into the 100 to 105 range. Those with outside activities will need to take extra precautions this weekend and into Monday as these temperatures may result in heat related illnesses. Heat advisories remain in effect for much of north central and western Nebraska through this evening. Cooler air will begin to push into the region behind a front on Monday bringing more moderate temperatures to northern Nebraska. For areas further to the south (south of I-80), highs will continue to soar into the upper 90s and low 100s with resulting heat indices above 100 as well. A heat advisory remains in place across this region through Monday evening. For tonight... isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Panhandle and into the Pine Ridge as a shortwave trough tracks across northern Nebraska. Limited instability exists across region though, which will keep inhibit any severe storms tonight. Still, a stronger storm or two is possible with hail and briefly gusty winds. The majority of the weather through Monday will remain calm and dry before a better chance of thunderstorms returns on Monday evening. Storms will initiate to the west off the Front Ranges by mid to late afternoon and move eastward into Nebraska. There is still some concerns regarding timing of these storms, however, the most likely timeframe to impact our forecast area will be in the evening (after 6pm CT). Significant instability exists across much of the Sandhills and eastern Panhandle with lapse rates of over 8 C/km and CAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg. With ample instability, these storms will have the potential to become severe with large hail and briefly gusty winds along with heavy rainfall being possible. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday as upslope flow creates an area behind the departing front of increased support for isolated to scattered storms. Again, storms will develop across off the Front Ranges and move eastward through the afternoon before impacting our region by late afternoon and evening. While overall instability is not too impressive, a narrow ribbon of higher instability will develop across southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. If storms can tap into this area of better support, they will have the potential to become severe. Strong winds and heavy rainfall will be the main threat before storms move east into a more stable environment. Additional rain and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend as several disturbances affects the area. Near daily thunderstorm chances are possible, however, the severe risk remains uncertain a this time. In addition to increased rain chances through next week, cooler temperatures will return to north central Nebraska. Highs return to near normal in the 80s for Tuesday lasting into the weekend with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The risk of MVFR or lower ceilings across wrn/ncntl Nebraska during the next 24 hours is low. An upper level disturbance across wrn WY this afternoon will move east and begin to affect wrn Nebraska this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across wrn Nebraska 00z-06z this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across north central Nebraska 06z-09z Sunday night. There are no other flight concerns. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-094. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ057>059- 069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...CDC