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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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429 FXUS63 KLBF 141723 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will be possible this morning in portions of north central Nebraska. A second round of thunderstorms is possible late this afternoon and tonight, mainly in the western and north central portions of the forecast area. - Hot temperatures will continue today across the area with hot temperatures continuing Monday in SW Nebraska. - Cooler temperatures will move into the area Tuesday and beyond with a good chance for precipitation Monday and Tuesday across the area. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 H5 analysis from earlier this evening, had an area of high pressure over western Colorado. Ridging extended north into southern Wyoming. North of this feature, west to east flow extended from Washington State, east across the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. Across Nebraska into the central plains and Ozarks, H5 flow was northwesterly and northerly, and relatively weak. Further north, closed low pressure was located over northern Manitoba with a shortwave noted over northeastern British Columbia. At the surface tonight, weak low pressure was noted over north central Kansas. A frontal boundary extended to the east northeast into far southern Nebraska. Winds were southerly south of this weak front, while winds were nearly calm north of the front. With the exception of some invading high cloudiness over northern Nebraska (associated with thunderstorms over South Dakota) and high cloudiness over far SW Nebraska (decaying convection off the Cheyenne Ridge) skies were generally clear across the forecast area. Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from 68 to 72 degrees across the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Over the next 24 hours, two episodes of precipitation chances are expected. First, Ongoing convection over central South Dakota, may clip the far northeastern portion of the forecast area this morning. Based on current motion, this activity will probably approach the forecast area, sometime after 4 AM CT and should clear the forecast area, by mid morning. The second threat for precipitation will be this afternoon into the nightime hours. Afternoon heating, along with a weakening cap will develop later today across far western Nebraska. Some of the CAMS develop some isolated convection in the western panhandle and lift this east and southeast into western portions of the FA by evening. Further east, a strong cap exists, which will inhibit convective initiation across most of the forecast area. Other thunderstorms may drift into northeastern portions of the forecast area later tonight as a MCS is progged to track from central into southeastern South Dakota. With respect to high temperatures today, the latest MET and MAV guidance have come into better agreement tonight and feel more confident in 100+ highs across a large swath of the forecast area, generally west of highway 83 and south of interstate 80. Further east, dew points this afternoon in the upper 60s to lower 70s, should hold temps under the century mark. In the wake of convection overnight over eastern South Dakota/far northeastern Nebraska, a frontal boundary will sag into northern Nebraska. This front will be forced further south on Monday as a secondary round of thunderstorms tracks through the eastern Dakotas. At the same time, the upper level high will be suppressed south, thanks to a decent shortwave trough and lowering H5 hts over South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Current model trends keep the front north of I-80 through mid afternoon, so highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s still appear on track ATTM. With this in mind, will continue the heat advisory for location along and south of I80. Later Monday afternoon into the evening hours, thunderstorms appear to develop INVOF the frontal boundary, especially over the eastern Panhandle into SW Nebraska. Abundant D-CAPE is noted from west central into SW portions of the forecast area, so wouldn`t be surprised if we saw some strong winds with the strongest storms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler behind the exiting front with highs in the 80s Tuesday, followed by highs in the upper 70s lower 80s for Wednesday. There is a good chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night as mid level forcing drops south from the Black Hills into NW and western Nebraska. Precipitation chances will decrease toward the end of the week as mid level flow takes on a more northerly component. Temperatures will moderate back into the 80s Friday and Saturday as cooler air retreats east into the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The risk of MVFR or lower ceilings across wrn/ncntl Nebraska during the next 24 hours is low. An upper level disturbance across wrn WY this afternoon will move east and begin to affect wrn Nebraska this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across wrn Nebraska 00z-06z this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across north central Nebraska 06z-09z Sunday night. There are no other flight concerns. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-094. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ057>059- 069>071. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC