572
FXUS63 KLBF 150836
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
336 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One last day of hot temperatures today across southwest
  Nebraska. Relief from the heat begins Tuesday, continuing
  through the end of the week with highs in the 80s, which is at
  or slightly below normal for this time of year.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible across southwest Nebraska
  and the western Sandhills this afternoon and evening. Some
  storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing
  damaging wind gusts (60+ mph).

- Unsettled weather continues Tuesday into the weekend with
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a dome of
high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest with a ridge
extending northwestward into British Columbia. Further northeast of
this feature, an upper-level trough of low pressure was noted over
northern Manitoba with a trough extending south into the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes. A shortwave trough was progressing eastward
across southern Manitoba and North Dakota into southwest Ontario and
northern Minnesota. These features have contributed to
westerly/northwesterly upper-level flow across the northern Plains
between the trough and the ridge. At the surface, low pressure was
centered over central South Dakota and northwest Kansas with the
trough axis bisecting central Nebraska. As of 3 AM CT, temperatures
ranged from 68 degrees at North Platte to 79 degrees at Gordon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Today and Tonight...Surface low pressure will deepen over the Great
Lakes with an attendant cold front migrating south across the
northern Plains this afternoon. While colder air behind the frontal
passage will allow temperatures to only climb into the low-90s
for northern Nebraska, one last hot day is in store across
southwest Nebraska. Afternoon temperatures climbing into the
upper-90s combined with dew points in the upper-50s and mid-60s
will result in heat index values up to 100 degrees to be felt
across southwest Nebraska. No changes were deemed necessary,
thus the Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM CT/6 AM MT
this evening. Later this afternoon, thunderstorms appear to
develop off the Cheyenne Ridge and Front Range in vicinity of
the aforementioned frontal boundary. These storms will migrate
east into western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska by the
evening (after 6 PM CT). Mid-level lapse rates (8.5- 9.5 C/km)
favoring deep-layer convective mixing combing with abundant
D-CAPE (1,000+ J/kg) will create an environment that will be
supportive of damaging wind gusts (60+ mph). The severe threat
will begin to wane through the overnight, though lingering
activity is possible through sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night...Thankfully, the aforementioned cold
front will bring an end to the hot temperatures for Tuesday and
beyond. Daytime temperatures will fall into the mid to upper-80s
across western and north central Nebraska. A surface low
appears to drift southeastward from southwest South Dakota into
north central Nebraska Tuesday afternoon, providing focus for
thunderstorm development. While the overall forcing remains
weak, a corridor of moderate MUCAPE (1,500+ J/kg) amidst
abundant 0-6km Bulk Shear (40+ kts) will create an environment
supportive of cold-pool organization across north central into
south central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A pattern shift is in store for the area through the rest of the
week into the weekend as the upper-level ridge retrogrades to the
western third of the CONUS. Upper-level troughing will continue
across the Great Lakes region, placing the central CONUS in a
northwesterly flow regime. This will help keep temperatures in the
at or slightly below normal range of upper-70s to mid-80s across
western and north central Nebraska. This regime will also usher in
several disturbances to eject across the region bringing
recurring afternoon/evening precipitation chances to the local
area through the weekend. Confidence is rather low on timing and
location given the spread amongst model solutions, thus cannot
argue with NBM`s near daily blanket of slight chance to chance
PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

There will be an abundance of mid and high level cloudiness into
the morning hours across the area. Ceilings will be broken at
15000 FT AGL for both terminals. Expect some limited clearing
later this morning with a few to scattered ceilings of 20000 to
25000 FT AGL. Skies will then cloud up this evening. There is a
limited threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms later this
evening, however, the bulk of activity is expected to hold off
until after 06z Tuesday. Winds will become northerly this
afternoon and may gust up to 20 KTS before diminishing this
evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Buttler