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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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284 FXUS63 KLBF 151741 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One last day of hot temperatures today across southwest Nebraska. Relief from the heat begins Tuesday, continuing through the end of the week with highs in the 80s, which is at or slightly below normal for this time of year. - Scattered thunderstorms are possible across southwest Nebraska and the western Sandhills this afternoon and evening. Some storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging wind gusts (60+ mph). - Unsettled weather continues Tuesday into the weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a dome of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest with a ridge extending northwestward into British Columbia. Further northeast of this feature, an upper-level trough of low pressure was noted over northern Manitoba with a trough extending south into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A shortwave trough was progressing eastward across southern Manitoba and North Dakota into southwest Ontario and northern Minnesota. These features have contributed to westerly/northwesterly upper-level flow across the northern Plains between the trough and the ridge. At the surface, low pressure was centered over central South Dakota and northwest Kansas with the trough axis bisecting central Nebraska. As of 3 AM CT, temperatures ranged from 68 degrees at North Platte to 79 degrees at Gordon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Today and Tonight...Surface low pressure will deepen over the Great Lakes with an attendant cold front migrating south across the northern Plains this afternoon. While colder air behind the frontal passage will allow temperatures to only climb into the low-90s for northern Nebraska, one last hot day is in store across southwest Nebraska. Afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper-90s combined with dew points in the upper-50s and mid-60s will result in heat index values up to 100 degrees to be felt across southwest Nebraska. No changes were deemed necessary, thus the Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM CT/6 AM MT this evening. Later this afternoon, thunderstorms appear to develop off the Cheyenne Ridge and Front Range in vicinity of the aforementioned frontal boundary. These storms will migrate east into western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska by the evening (after 6 PM CT). Mid-level lapse rates (8.5- 9.5 C/km) favoring deep-layer convective mixing combing with abundant D-CAPE (1,000+ J/kg) will create an environment that will be supportive of damaging wind gusts (60+ mph). The severe threat will begin to wane through the overnight, though lingering activity is possible through sunrise on Tuesday. Tuesday and Tuesday Night...Thankfully, the aforementioned cold front will bring an end to the hot temperatures for Tuesday and beyond. Daytime temperatures will fall into the mid to upper-80s across western and north central Nebraska. A surface low appears to drift southeastward from southwest South Dakota into north central Nebraska Tuesday afternoon, providing focus for thunderstorm development. While the overall forcing remains weak, a corridor of moderate MUCAPE (1,500+ J/kg) amidst abundant 0-6km Bulk Shear (40+ kts) will create an environment supportive of cold-pool organization across north central into south central Nebraska. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A pattern shift is in store for the area through the rest of the week into the weekend as the upper-level ridge retrogrades to the western third of the CONUS. Upper-level troughing will continue across the Great Lakes region, placing the central CONUS in a northwesterly flow regime. This will help keep temperatures in the at or slightly below normal range of upper-70s to mid-80s across western and north central Nebraska. This regime will also usher in several disturbances to eject across the region bringing recurring afternoon/evening precipitation chances to the local area through the weekend. Confidence is rather low on timing and location given the spread amongst model solutions, thus cannot argue with NBM`s near daily blanket of slight chance to chance PoPs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions will continue through much of the next day. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across southwest Nebraska and into the Sandhills this evening but confidence remains too low in development and coverage at this time to put it into the prevailing forecast. Winds remain under 15 knots, except in thunderstorms where brief gusty and erratic winds are possible. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ057>059-069>071. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Viken SHORT TERM...Viken LONG TERM...Viken AVIATION...Kulik