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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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649 FXUS63 KLBF 160847 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 347 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A much welcomed return of cooler, below normal temperatures are in store for the region with daytime temperatures generally in the upper-70s to upper-80s through the remainder of the week into the weekend. - Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the area late this afternoon and evening. Some storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging wind gusts (60+ mph) and large hail (1"+ in diameter). - Unsettled conditions continue Wednesday into the weekend with recurring afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed the stubborn ridge retrograding into the Desert Southwest, expanding across the western third of the CONUS. Upper-level troughing extends from Ontario through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. Both of these features combined has resulted in northwesterly flow aloft across western and north central Nebraska. An upper-level disturbance moving east across the Plains in a post- frontal environment has resulted in scattered rain showers and embedded thunderstorms to develop across eastern Wyoming overnight. This activity continues to track from west to east across the forecast area, though fairly light in nature, resulting in only a few hundreths to a few tenths of an inch of moisture. Anticipate this activity to exit north central Nebraska through sunrise. As of 3 AM CT, temperatures ranged from 66 degrees at Ogallala to 74 degrees at Broken Bow. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Today and Tonight...Thankfully, the cold front that advanced across the area yesterday will bring an end to the hot temperatures starting today. Daytime temperatures will fall into the mid-80s to low-90s across western and north central Nebraska. A weak shortwave trough will dig toward Nebraska this afternoon, aiding in the development of a weak surface low, resulting in increased low-level convergence. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop across western and north central Nebraska around 4 PM CT, exiting to the southeast through 10 PM CT. Forecast soundings show deep mixing with inverted-v profiles coincident with DCAPE values of around 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg. This results in an environment that is supportive of damaging wind and large hail. Wednesday and Wednesday Night...We will really begin to feel the relief from the heat from over the past week on Wednesday with high temperatures in upper-70s to low-80s. Another disturbance traversing along the northwesterly flow aloft will aid in thunderstorm development along the Front Range and Cheyenne ridge. Low-level moisture will increase across the region in post-frontal upslope flow and combine with daytime heating to provide destabilization. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the western Panhandle through the evening. Recent forecast soundings show deep mixing and an inverted-v profile suggesting that these storms will be high-based. Given the DCAPE values of 1,000-1,500 J/kg, strong to severe wind gusts are the primary concern with these thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 With upper-level troughing continuing across the eastern CONUS and the upper-level ridge holding strong over the western CONUS, the central CONUS will be placed in a northwesterly flow regime through the period. This will help keep temperatures in the at or slightly below normal range of the upper-70s to upper-80s across western and north central Nebraska. Multiple subtle shortwaves eject across the forecast area during this period resulting in recurring afternoon and evening low-end/low-confidence PoPs. The most robust shortwave appears to track southward through the area late Friday into Saturday which will bring our next best shot at widespread wetting moisture. Confidence is rather low on timing and just how much moisture given the spread amongst model solutions on the evolution of this system, thus will continue to monitor with subsequent forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact the KLBF, and to a lesser degree, the KVTN terminal through 09z overnight. Visibilities may fall off to around 5 miles at the KLBF terminal with some gusty winds up to 35 KTS. Overnight, expect gradual clearing with scattered ceilings of 20000 to 25000 FT expected by sunrise Tuesday. Another round of showers and storms may impact portions of the forecast area late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. At this time, the main impact is to the KLBF terminal from 22z Tuesday through 02z Wednesday. Visibilities may fall off to around 4 SM with broken ceilings of 6000 FT expected. Look for thunderstorm timing at the KLBF terminal to be better defined with the 12z and 18z forecasts later today. By late evening tuesday, expect high cloudiness at the KLBF terminal. At the KVTN terminal, some low level cloudiness may move into the area by late evening with ceilings around 4000 FT AGL. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Viken SHORT TERM...Viken LONG TERM...Viken AVIATION...Richie