151
FXUS63 KLBF 161751
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A much welcomed return of cooler, below normal temperatures
  are in store for the region with daytime temperatures
  generally in the upper-70s to upper-80s through the remainder
  of the week into the weekend.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the area
  late this afternoon and evening. Some storms may become
  strong to severe, capable of producing damaging wind gusts
  (60+ mph) and large hail (1"+ in diameter).

- Unsettled conditions continue Wednesday into the weekend with recurring
  afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed the
stubborn ridge retrograding into the Desert Southwest, expanding
across the western third of the CONUS. Upper-level troughing extends
from Ontario through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes
region. Both of these features combined has resulted in
northwesterly flow aloft across western and north central Nebraska.
An upper-level disturbance moving east across the Plains in a post-
frontal environment has resulted in scattered rain showers and
embedded thunderstorms to develop across eastern Wyoming overnight.
This activity continues to track from west to east across the
forecast area, though fairly light in nature, resulting in only a
few hundreths to a few tenths of an inch of moisture.
Anticipate this activity to exit north central Nebraska through
sunrise. As of 3 AM CT, temperatures ranged from 66 degrees at
Ogallala to 74 degrees at Broken Bow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Today and Tonight...Thankfully, the cold front that advanced
across the area yesterday will bring an end to the hot
temperatures starting today. Daytime temperatures will fall
into the mid-80s to low-90s across western and north central
Nebraska. A weak shortwave trough will dig toward Nebraska this
afternoon, aiding in the development of a weak surface low,
resulting in increased low-level convergence. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop across western and
north central Nebraska around 4 PM CT, exiting to the southeast
through 10 PM CT. Forecast soundings show deep mixing with
inverted-v profiles coincident with DCAPE values of around 1,000
to 2,000 J/kg. This results in an environment that is
supportive of damaging wind and large hail.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night...We will really begin to feel
the relief from the heat from over the past week on Wednesday
with high temperatures in upper-70s to low-80s. Another
disturbance traversing along the northwesterly flow aloft will
aid in thunderstorm development along the Front Range and
Cheyenne ridge. Low-level moisture will increase across the
region in post-frontal upslope flow and combine with daytime
heating to provide destabilization. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain
into the western Panhandle through the evening. Recent forecast soundings
show deep mixing and an inverted-v profile suggesting that
these storms will be high-based. Given the DCAPE values of
1,000-1,500 J/kg, strong to severe wind gusts are the primary
concern with these thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

With upper-level troughing continuing across the eastern CONUS and
the upper-level ridge holding strong over the western CONUS, the
central CONUS will be placed in a northwesterly flow regime through
the period. This will help keep temperatures in the at or slightly
below normal range of the upper-70s to upper-80s across western and
north central Nebraska. Multiple subtle shortwaves eject across the
forecast area during this period resulting in recurring
afternoon and evening low-end/low-confidence PoPs. The most
robust shortwave appears to track southward through the area
late Friday into Saturday which will bring our next best shot at
widespread wetting moisture. Confidence is rather low on timing
and just how much moisture given the spread amongst model
solutions on the evolution of this system, thus will continue to
monitor with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and this
evening, mainly affecting areas east of highway 83. Storm
activity, could begin in the north around 21z and move south
exiting scntl Nebraska around 05z this evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible west of highway 83 during the same
time frame.

The next flight concern is the potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings
between 09z and 15z Wednesday morning. Confidence in this
occurring is low to medium. The forecast, supported by the some
models but not all, wages hefty moisture will remain in place
and form the low ceilings. Flight conditions will improve
Wednesday morning with VFR/areas of MVFR ceilings developing by
16z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...CDC