121
FXUS63 KLBF 180358
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1058 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is
  possible this afternoon and evening across southwest Nebraska with
  areas across the Panhandle remaining in a marginal risk (risk
  level 1 of 5). Strong winds will be the main threat, although
  some hail is also possible.

* A marginal risk (risk level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms are
  possible on Thursday and Friday across the Panhandle and into the
  Sandhills and southwest Nebraska with strong winds and large hail
  being the main threats.

* Cooler temperatures through the weekend as highs fall back into
  the upper 70s to upper 80s.

* Near daily rain and thunderstorms are expected through the
  weekend, although, the severe threat remains uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The main concern through Thursday will be the severe thunderstorm
chances both this afternoon and evening and again Thursday evening.
For this afternoon/evening...current radar shows some weak to
moderate convection already developing across the Panhandle. With
moderate instability (CAPE values over 1500 J/kg and lapse rates
above 7 C/km) storms will have the potential to become briefly
severe as they continue to develop over the next few hours. However,
with marginal 0-6km bulk shear over 40 knots storms may struggle to
initiate at first, but once/if they can tap into the moderate
instability they will have the chance to become supercellular. While
widespread severe storms are not expected, a few stronger to briefly
severe storms are likely over the next several hours before diurnal
heating comes to an end by mid evening. Primary threats will be
strong wind gusts although some storms will be possible of producing
moderate hail. Some lingering showers or embedded thunderstorms will
continue through the overnight hours impacting mainly central
Nebraska and the Sandhills. Overall, these storms will lack the
support to become severe, but a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled
out either. Showers will eventually move out of the area and weaken
as they encounter more stable air by Thursday morning.

Wednesday will be almost a copy of Wednesday. Lingering light showers
will lessen through the morning with an increase in convection
potential by the afternoon. Storms will quickly become scattered
by late afternoon across the west (Panhandle). Modest
instability and increased moisture once again will help to
support some severe storms that will attempt to push into the
eastern Panhandle (west of Highway 61) and southwest Nebraska.
The main threats will mainly be strong winds, although, some
large hail may also be possible in some of the more organized
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is expected again on Friday
afternoon and evening across the Panhandle and much of north central
Nebraska. Storms will initiate across the High Plains and push
eastward by late afternoon and evening. Increased moisture advection
combined with diurnal heating will result in an environment
favorable for convection. With storms potentially developing into
supercells by late afternoon, strong winds, large hail heavy
rainfall will be the main threat before storms move east into a more
stable environment.

Additional rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the
weekend and into early next week as several disturbances affects the
area. Near daily thunderstorm chances are possible, however, the
severe risk remains uncertain a this time.

In addition to increased rain chances into the beginning of next
week, cooler temperatures will continue across the region. Latest
model trends suggest 850 mb temperatures in the 14 to 20 C range
which will result in highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s through
next Monday with lows in the mid to upper 50s. These temperatures
will be 5 to 10 degrees below normals for this time of year (low 90s
for highs, low 60s for lows). Looking ahead, warm air advection
towards the middle to end of next week should return temperatures
back to near normal for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. Winds remain light at variable at 10kts or
less overnight, strengthening out of the south Thursday
afternoon at 15kts or less.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Viken