462
FXUS63 KLBF 181150
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible for areas generally west
  of Highway 83. Some storms may become strong to severe,
  capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Greater potential for isolated to scattered severe storms
  exists across western and north central Nebraska on Friday
  with an increased threat for damaging winds and isolated
  large hail.

- Cooler and unsettled conditions continue through the weekend
  into Monday before trending warmer and drier for the remainder
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Today and Tonight...Mostly quiet conditions with highs in the 80s
are in store for the area. However, by late afternoon, thunderstorms
may initiate over the southeastern Wyoming, the Nebraska Panhandle
and northeastern Colorado in an upslope flow regime. Recent hi-res
guidance continues to be rather pessimistic on storms being able to
develop given limited upper and low-level support for forcing and
ascent. Recent forecast soundings show deep mixing and an inverted-v
profile suggesting that these storms will be elevated in nature.
Given DCAPE values of 1,000-1,500 J/kg present across the area,
strong to severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary concern
with any storms that develop and are able to sustain themselves.

Friday and Friday Night...A subtle shortwave drops southeast across
the area Friday morning ahead of the more robust shortwave currently
across Washington State. This feature will aid in shower and
thunderstorm development Friday morning across southwest South
Dakota, tracking southeast into the Sandhills and central Nebraska
through the afternoon. Though the severe threat is not as favorable
as it will be behind this initial activity, it cannot entirely be
ruled out given increased instability and shear. At the same time,
the more potent shortwave will drop southeast across the northern
Plains Friday afternoon into the evening. With the position of a lee
trough across eastern Colorado, southerly low-level flow and
moisture advection will increase across the area. With the lee
trough axis bisecting the Sandhills by the evening, low-level
convergence will increase across the local area. Surface
temperatures in the low-80s to low-90s combined with dew points in
the mid-60s will support sufficient instability (MLCAPE 1,000 to
2,000 J/kg) across western and north central Nebraska. This combined
with steep lapse rates (6.5 to 7.5 C/km) and ample deep-layer shear
(40 to 50+kts) will result in an environment that will support storm
organization and strong to severe storms capable of producing
damaging wind and large hail. As the night progresses and activity
pushes into central and north central Nebraska, it takes on a more
linear mode aided by a low-level jet (LLJ) developing overnight. As
a result, showers and storms should sustain itself well into the
overnight hours with an increased threat for damaging winds. As of
now, SPC has our entire area outlooked for a Marginal Risk (Level
1/5). Though some uncertainty exists as the morning activity may
impact how we recover for the second round of development, would not
be surprised to see an upgrade to a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for
portions of the area with later forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

With upper-level troughing continuing across the eastern CONUS and
the upper-level ridge holding strong over the western CONUS, the
central CONUS will remain in a northwesterly/northerly flow regime
through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
possible through the weekend as multiple subtle shortwaves eject
across the forecast area resulting in recurring afternoon and
evening low-end/low-confidence PoPs. This regime will also help keep
temperatures in the at or slightly below normal range of the mid-70s
to mid-80s across western and north central Nebraska this weekend
into Monday. However, an upper-level trough drops out of the Gulf of
Alaska into the Pacific Northwest early next week, nudging the
upper-level ridge further east. This will result in temperatures
trending warmer with drier conditions through the remainder of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Shallow fog affecting LBF should linger for another hour or two
before dissipating.

Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period. Afternoon cumulus, to varying magnitudes of coverage
between different model suites, should remain low-end VFR at
worst through the afternoon. Later this evening, storms will
move in from the west and likely bring at least limited impacts
to OGA/IML but should remain well west of LBF/VTN to preclude
mention at this time.

Winds increase this evening and late overnight for both
terminals, which may introduce some LLWS concerns. Will keep
LLWS mention out and cover with gusty winds at the surface for
now.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...NMJ