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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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445 FXUS63 KLBF 192020 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 320 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are possible late this afternoon and tonight. The hazards are damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall which may cause flooding in some areas. The risk of a tornado is low but not zero. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday. The risk of severe storms is low. - Dry weather and warming temperatures are expected Tuesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A plume of subtropical moisture will remain across wrn/ncntl Nebraska this afternoon and this evening. PWAT values of 1.25 to 1.50 inches will be in place. Modest drying is expected after midnight. Thereafter, PWAT falls to an inch or less Saturday and Saturday night. This drying will be accompanied by cooler air aloft with h700mb temperatures falling to 5 to 9 C. Severe weather chances this afternoon and this evening hinge on an increase in wind speeds aloft, most notably h500mb winds increasing from 30kt to around 40kt. Warm air advection moving north through KS is modest and being intercepted by ongoing storms but warmer air aloft is lurking to the west across the high plains of Colo and WY. The first round of 2 or perhaps 3 rounds of thunderstorms moved through wrn/ncntl Nebraska this afternoon. A second round is attempting to organize across SD and WY. Given that satellite shows the dynamics extending north into wrn SD/nern WY, a second round of late afternoon/evening storms seems likely. The very dry air across the high plains make significant wind gusts the primary concern. High PWAT and the potential for cell mergers, back-building and repeat storms support the WPC excessive rainfall outlook highlighting swrn and ncntl Nebraska for flood potential. A third round of thunderstorms is possible late this evening and overnight as temperatures aloft cool but the latest NAM12, HREF and NAMnest are quiet about this. The RAP model supports scattered storms late tonight. The model soundings show abundant CAPE, around 2500 J/KG but the winds aloft are backing with height which might favor back-building and excessive rainfall vs severe weather. Nonetheless, satellite and radar shows storms firing across ern MT this afternoon and this disturbance will likely move south through Nebraska overnight. The peak heating period from 4 pm to 9 pm today would appear to be the most favored time for severe weather but not all models agree on this. The forecast leans toward the more aggressive NAMnest which shows scattered storms developing late this afternoon into the evening. Isolated rain chances are in place Saturday, mainly for daytime heating. The forecast is dry Saturday night. It is worth noting the jet stream will shift west running north and south along the Laramie and Front ranges Saturday. It is in this area the models show storms forming. This activity would likely be steered south southeast and remain west of wrn/ncntl Nebraska. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Isolated to low-end chance POPs are in place Sunday and Monday. Winds aloft at h500-300mb will be weak, generally less than 30kts and the risk of severe storms would likely remain low. The forecast is dry Tuesday and beyond for a few reasons. Upper level moisture in the models will be spartan and temperatures aloft will be on the rise. Wrn/ncntl Nebraska will remain in northwest flow which could support storm development off the Black Hills or the Big Horns but the models suggest moisture will be too limited. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of thunderstorms across western and north central Nebraska into tonight. Widespread thunderstorm development will continue across much of the area this afternoon and evening, with brief MVFR CIGs and visibilities, along with gusty and erratic winds, possible inside storms. Timing and placement of thunderstorm activity remains low confidence, and amendments will likely be needed at both KLBF and KVTN as confidence grows. Thunderstorms exit the area tonight, with an expansion of low stratus across north central Nebraska. A period of IFR is possible for north central Nebraska terminals tomorrow morning. Winds remain erratic across the area with the passage of thunderstorm outflow boundaries today, with a return of light northerly winds overnight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Brown