Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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675 FXUS63 KLBF 082325 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures will range as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the 90s to low 100s Friday through Monday, with increasing heat concerns across western and north central Nebraska. - While dry conditions are also expected much of the next 7 days, opportunities for at least isolated storm development is possible Friday and Monday. - Fire weather concerns may increase into the weekend as well, as very warm, dry, and potentially breezy conditions develop, especially across the western Sandhills into portions of southwest Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Currently, scattered to broken coverage of cumulus clouds have developed across the area. Temperatures at 3pm CDT, ranged from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds were light northerly to light and variable, with surface high pressure centered over the mid Missouri Valley. For tonight, the remnants of hurricane Beryl will track from northeast Texas into Arkansas. Weak surface high pressure will remain settled over Nebraska, with skies becoming mostly clear. Lows will fall into the mid 50s. Tuesday, a strong upper ridge will remain centered over Nevada with the upper ridge axis extending north through Alberta, Canada. northwest flow aloft will persist across western Nebraska. Cumulus clouds will again develop late morning and continue through the afternoon. A few isolated showers could develop across southwest into central Nebraska, however most of the CAMs are dry, so a dry forecast is expected. With weak upper ridging, high temperatures will be at least 5 degrees warmer than today and range from 86 to 91 degrees. Another day of light and variable winds. Tuesday night, an upper disturbance on the western periphery of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes will drop south over the eastern Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. This may trigger a a few showers or thunderstorms across the east. Will keep the forecast dry attm, as most models not initiating any convection. Low mainly in the upper 50s. Additionally, will have to monitor the potential for elevated to near critical fire weather concerns as the heat builds into the area. This will send humidity values falling to near critical levels, across the far western Sandhills and portions of southwest Nebraska. With recent rainfall and very green conditions, fuels should be very limited. Breezy winds may accompany the warm and dry conditions at times. Will have to monitor the progression of fuels over the next several days as the warm and dry pattern sets into the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 On Wednesday, upper height rises build across the Northern and Central Plains. An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back into Iowa will limit highs to 85 to the low 90s. wind will become light northwest in the afternoon. Hot temperatures will move into the western Sandhills and southwest on Thursday with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Upper ridging will continue to strengthen across the region Friday through Sunday. High reach the 90s, with upper 90s to near 100 across the west and southwest Friday and Saturday. Sunday remains the hottest day across the area. The ECMWF EFI shift of tails exceeds 0.7 for Max T. Forecast highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. An upper trough will drop through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Monday. This will push a weak cold front southward and lessen the heat with low to mid 90s nctrl while near 100 holds on across the southwest. A slight chance of showers/storms western Sandhills in the afternoon. Also a slight chance for storms Friday evening western Sandhills, although the location remains uncertain. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska through the period. Winds will remain light and variable at 6kts or less. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Viken