133
FXUS63 KLBF 141120
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will be possible this morning in portions of north
central Nebraska. A second round of thunderstorms is possible late
this afternoon and tonight, mainly in the western and north central
portions of the forecast area.

- Hot temperatures will continue today across the area with hot
temperatures continuing Monday in SW Nebraska.

- Cooler temperatures will move into the area Tuesday and beyond
  with a good chance for precipitation Monday and Tuesday across
  the area.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

H5 analysis from earlier this evening, had an area of high
pressure over western Colorado. Ridging extended north into
southern Wyoming. North of this feature, west to east flow
extended from Washington State, east across the Dakotas into the
Great Lakes. Across Nebraska into the central plains and
Ozarks, H5 flow was northwesterly and northerly, and relatively
weak. Further north, closed low pressure was located over
northern Manitoba with a shortwave noted over northeastern
British Columbia. At the surface tonight, weak low pressure was
noted over north central Kansas. A frontal boundary extended to
the east northeast into far southern Nebraska. Winds were
southerly south of this weak front, while winds were nearly calm
north of the front. With the exception of some invading high
cloudiness over northern Nebraska (associated with thunderstorms
over South Dakota) and high cloudiness over far SW Nebraska
(decaying convection off the Cheyenne Ridge) skies were
generally clear across the forecast area. Temperatures as of 3
AM CDT ranged from 68 to 72 degrees across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Over the next 24 hours, two episodes of precipitation chances
are expected. First, Ongoing convection over central South
Dakota, may clip the far northeastern portion of the forecast
area this morning. Based on current motion, this activity will
probably approach the forecast area, sometime after 4 AM CT and
should clear the forecast area, by mid morning. The second
threat for precipitation will be this afternoon into the
nightime hours. Afternoon heating, along with a weakening cap
will develop later today across far western Nebraska. Some of
the CAMS develop some isolated convection in the western
panhandle and lift this east and southeast into western portions
of the FA by evening. Further east, a strong cap exists, which
will inhibit convective initiation across most of the forecast
area. Other thunderstorms may drift into northeastern portions
of the forecast area later tonight as a MCS is progged to track
from central into southeastern South Dakota. With respect to
high temperatures today, the latest MET and MAV guidance have
come into better agreement tonight and feel more confident in
100+ highs across a large swath of the forecast area, generally
west of highway 83 and south of interstate 80. Further east, dew
points this afternoon in the upper 60s to lower 70s, should
hold temps under the century mark. In the wake of convection
overnight over eastern South Dakota/far northeastern Nebraska, a
frontal boundary will sag into northern Nebraska. This front
will be forced further south on Monday as a secondary round of
thunderstorms tracks through the eastern Dakotas. At the same
time, the upper level high will be suppressed south, thanks to a
decent shortwave trough and lowering H5 hts over South Dakota
into northern Nebraska. Current model trends keep the front
north of I-80 through mid afternoon, so highs in the upper 90s
to lower 100s still appear on track ATTM. With this in mind,
will continue the heat advisory for location along and south of
I80. Later Monday afternoon into the evening hours,
thunderstorms appear to develop INVOF the frontal boundary,
especially over the eastern Panhandle into SW Nebraska. Abundant
D-CAPE is noted from west central into SW portions of the
forecast area, so wouldn`t be surprised if we saw some strong
winds with the strongest storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures will be cooler behind the exiting front with highs
in the 80s Tuesday, followed by highs in the upper 70s lower 80s
for Wednesday. There is a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night as mid level forcing drops south
from the Black Hills into NW and western Nebraska. Precipitation
chances will decrease toward the end of the week as mid level
flow takes on a more northerly component. Temperatures will
moderate back into the 80s Friday and Saturday as cooler air
retreats east into the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. Breezy northeast outflow winds up to 25kts
will continue across southwest and south central Nebraska (KLBF,
KIML) for the next 1 to 2 hours. Otherwise, southeast winds will
prevail through late this evening before veering towards the
southwest/west overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-094.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ057>059-
069>071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Viken