553
FXUS63 KLBF 150520
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dangerous heat continues through Monday with heat advisories in
  effect as heat indices rise above 100 degrees.

* A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is
  possible on Monday evening across the Panhandle and portions of
  southwest Nebraska. Large hail and strong winds will be the main
  threats.

* A marginal risk (risk level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms are
  possible on Tuesday across much of the Panhandle, southwest
  Nebraska, and the Sandhills with strong winds and heavy rainfall
  being the main threats.

* Cooler temperatures return on Tuesday lasting through next
  weekend as highs fall back into the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The main concern through Monday will be the extremely hot
temperatures. Latest models suggest 850 mb temperatures well into
the 28 to 32 degree C range which will result in surface high
temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This combined with
increasing surface dewpoints will allow for heat indices to rise to
dangerous levels into the 100 to 105 range. Those with outside
activities will need to take extra precautions this weekend and into
Monday as these temperatures may result in heat related illnesses.
Heat advisories remain in effect for much of north central and
western Nebraska through this evening. Cooler air will begin to push
into the region behind a front on Monday bringing more moderate
temperatures to northern Nebraska. For areas further to the south
(south of I-80), highs will continue to soar into the upper 90s and
low 100s with resulting heat indices above 100 as well. A heat
advisory remains in place across this region through Monday evening.

For tonight... isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop
across portions of the Panhandle and into the Pine Ridge as a
shortwave trough tracks across northern Nebraska. Limited
instability exists across region though, which will keep inhibit any
severe storms tonight. Still, a stronger storm or two is possible
with hail and briefly gusty winds.

The majority of the weather through Monday will remain calm and dry
before a better chance of thunderstorms returns on Monday evening.
Storms will initiate to the west off the Front Ranges by mid to late
afternoon and move eastward into Nebraska. There is still some
concerns regarding timing of these storms, however, the most likely
timeframe to impact our forecast area will be in the evening (after
6pm CT). Significant instability exists across much of the Sandhills
and eastern Panhandle with lapse rates of over 8 C/km and CAPE
values of at least 1000 J/kg. With ample instability, these storms
will have the potential to become severe with large hail and briefly
gusty winds along with heavy rainfall being possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday as
upslope flow creates an area behind the departing front of increased
support for isolated to scattered storms. Again, storms will develop
across off the Front Ranges and move eastward through the afternoon
before impacting our region by late afternoon and evening. While
overall instability is not too impressive, a narrow ribbon of higher
instability will develop across southwest Nebraska into the
Sandhills. If storms can tap into this area of better support, they
will have the potential to become severe. Strong winds and heavy
rainfall will be the main threat before storms move east into a more
stable environment.

Additional rain and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend
as several disturbances affects the area. Near daily thunderstorm
chances are possible, however, the severe risk remains uncertain a
this time.

In addition to increased rain chances through next week, cooler
temperatures will return to north central Nebraska. Highs return to
near normal in the 80s for Tuesday lasting into the weekend with
lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

There will be an abundance of mid and high level cloudiness into
the morning hours across the area. Ceilings will be broken at
15000 FT AGL for both terminals. Expect some limited clearing
later this morning with a few to scattered ceilings of 20000 to
25000 FT AGL. Skies will then cloud up this evening. There is a
limited threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms later this
evening, however, the bulk of activity is expected to hold off
until after 06z Tuesday. Winds will become northerly this
afternoon and may gust up to 20 KTS before diminishing this
evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler