Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
933 FXUS62 KKEY 161909 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 309 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Conditions have been a little busier today if we compare it to yesterday at this time. Showers and thunderstorms from this morning have thrived in the unstable environment that is seasonable to our area for this time of year. Even though the individual cells have little to no motion, due to very light flow, their outflow boundaries have been able to provide a trigger for new development. The combination of active weather and increased cloud cover will help to take the edge off of the heat as we head into the later afternoon/early evening hours. Any given shower out there has the possibility of producing lightning, so anyone out and about this evening on land or on water should keep that in mind if encountering this activity. Wet and thundery conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow as the previously mentioned moisture boundary pushes through the forecast area. Considering the sufficient instability and moisture combined with the ample lift from the boundary, we have opted to go with chance of thunderstorms in the zone forecast for the island chain. Where thunderstorms do occur, heavy downpours and gusty, erratic winds will be possible. High temperatures during the day should be able to hit just shy of the 90 degree mark thanks to the increase in activity. At the end of the weekend and into next week, the Mexico ridge will amplify in tandem with a deepening trough over the eastern U.S. coast. As this happens, the surface winds will have the opportunity to increase and shift to a southwesterly direction, setting the stage for multiple cloudline days during the week. But overall, the week should look less busy than this past weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The previously mentioned weak gradient across the Keys waters will allow for generally light to gentle breezes out of the north to northeast, however variable directions will be seen at times. Breezes will veer to the south and southwest over the beginning of the new week as large scale ridging is able to reestablish itself in the central U.S. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Scattered short-duration showers and thunderstorms developed early along the island chain, with VCSH for EYW and beginning shortly for MTH. Surface winds, initially northwest, and quickly turning north to northeast with speeds 5 knots or less as a trough...a former cool front...drifts southward. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms may increase further through the remainder of the afternoon through early evening as surface winds become established out of the northeast to east at 4 to 8 knots. TEMPOs may be required during this period. After a lull or minimum of convection coverage later this evening, some increase in showers may occur towards dawn with VCSH warranted with winds turning east to possibly southeast. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1861, a Hurricane moved northwest through the Straits just southwest of the Lower Keys. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 90 82 91 / 40 50 50 40 Marathon 81 90 81 91 / 40 50 50 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....JR Data Acquisition.....JR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest