Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
992 FXUS62 KKEY 171916 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 316 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Weather conditions have continued to remain busy this afternoon as a relatively stationary boundary has sat in place across the forecast area. This is the result of an extended tail of moisture stretching southwestward from Hurricane Ernesto, located just north of Bermuda. Cloud cover was able to ward off hazardous heat this afternoon, and the majority of our observation stations reported afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. These showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening and nighttime hours, waxing and waning in intensity as they seemingly feed off of each other. Over the rest of the weekend and into the start of next week, troughing that is currently over the Great Lakes region will slow its progression and dig deeper into the southeastern U.S. There is still some question as to how deep it digs, but the result will be near surface winds that veer around the clock as the gradient changes its orientation over the forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to roughly 30 percent, closer to normal, as the aforementioned moisture from Ernesto decreases. Temperatures will slowly return to the lower 90s as the higher pressure encourages more sunshine and less cloud cover, and winds that are still on the light side prevent things from mixing. As we head into the end of the week, ensemble guidance is split as to what it wants to do with the trough. Some members have the whole trough lifting away from the eastern coast of the U.S. while other members break off a closed low that sits along the Gulf Coast of Florida. The resulting weather will depend on which solution follows through, so it is difficult to say what will happen in terms of rainfall vs sunny days, but it will be worth keeping an eye on over the coming days. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A stretch of showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening and overnight hours across to Keys waters before tapering off slowly tomorrow morning. Light to gentle breezes will overall be out of the east to southeast, becoming variable at times, but breezes will be higher in and near showers and thunderstorms. As a trough over the northeastern U.S. deepens over the weekend, breezes will veer around the clock and assume a southwesterly to westerly direction by Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A lull in convective activity continues after this morning`s showers and thunderstorms. VCSH remains in both TAFs as isolated to scattered showers are expected to pulse around the island chain throughout the TAF period. TEMPOs will be used when direct impacts to the terminals are expected. Near surface winds will be generally out of the east at 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to east. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1886, a Tropical Storm intensified into a Hurricane as it moved west northwest through the Straits about 50 miles south of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 1005 mb, or 29.68", was recorded, along with a peak wind of 48 and numerous gusts to 60 mph. A man was killed when a building collapsed on Duval st. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 89 81 90 / 40 40 30 30 Marathon 81 89 81 89 / 40 40 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest