


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
985 FXUS62 KKEY 051503 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1103 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Another active morning continues for the Florida Keys. A corridor of confluence along with an uncapped atmosphere has resulted in convection bubbling along and around existing boundaries. Despite a seemingly uninhibited environment, not many showers have developed into thunderstorms and, if they do, tend to diminish quickly. One possible hint as to why these showers are not holding together can be found in this morning`s KKEY 12z sounding where a large spike of dry air is observed around 600mb. This could be thought as strange as one would assume ample moist air is being pulled into our area on the tail end of newly named Tropical Storm Chantal as it trudges slowly towards the South Carolina coast. CIMSS MIMIC TPW does note a dry slot in Chantal`s tail extending across Lake Okeechobee and into the southeastern Gulf. While this feature could spell some doom for showers in its immediate area, convection is still progged to wax and wane around the island chain into this afternoon. 50% PoPs continue to look appropriate for this reason. Meanwhile, moderate southwesterly breezes prevail along the Reef outside of convective influence. These are set to continue throughout today, only gradually backing to the south and slackening tonight as Chantal limps into South Carolina. && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a deep trough complex over the Southeast US and Florida will maintain gentle southwest breezes across the Florida Keys through today. As the trough lifts northeast starting Sunday, a weak ridge axis will rebuild across the Keys and South Florida, resulting in a return to generally light to gentle easterly breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Widely scattered showers are ongoing around the island chain with a handful crossing into the vicinity of EYW and MTH. Will likely keep VCSH in both TAFs for the time being and add on short term amendments for immediate impacts as exact timing and coverage of showers is uncertain. Near surface winds will be out of the southwest at near 10 knots, slackening and backing to the south later this evening and into tonight. && .CLIMATE... In 2021, Tropical Storm Elsa moved roughly 55 miles west of Key West late July 5th through early afternoon July 6th, with the center of the storm passing in between Key West and the Dry Tortugas. It produced maximum sustained winds of 52 mph at Key West international Airport and 48 knots at Smith Shoal Light, with wind gusts to 70 mph and 58 knots, respectively. Rainfall totals were the highest in Key West as well with Key West International Airport measuring 4.49 inches, the NWS Key West office measuring 6.62 inches, with a maximum rainfall amount of 7.54 inches on Catherine Street in Key West. No significant impacts were noted from Tropical Storm Elsa with the exception of significant street flooding of 6 to 10 inches in depth in Old Town and Midtown Key West as strong rain bands with high rainfall rates moved across the island. Otherwise, most damage was confined to widely-separated downed tree limbs from Key West to the Saddlebunch Keys due to nearly 13 hours of Tropical-Storm-Force gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 91 82 / 50 40 20 20 Marathon 89 81 89 82 / 50 40 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest