600
FXUS62 KKEY 171458
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1058 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1001 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
This morning has been the busiest morning over the past few days!
The KBYX radar shows a roughly west to east oriented swath of
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The most
lightning near Key West occurred when an old boundary from the
south collided with a couple of smaller showers that were already
sitting over the island around 845 AM local time. The majority of
the lightning occurred offshore just southwest of the island, so
we hope the sea animals affected are okay. There isn`t anything
that indicates this activity will diminish soon, so will go ahead
and maintain the 50 percent PoPs for today. These cells will
continue to take advantage of the approximately 2200 J/kg of CAPE
that was sampled from the balloon launch this morning. Very light
and variable winds all the way up to 400mb make it difficult to
pinpoint where each cell will drift, so we will continue to
message a wet and dreary day.

Satellite shows the resulting cloud field is stretching across our
island chain and waters, and it looks like it will stay in place
through at least the morning and early afternoon. Because of
this, we have cancelled the heat advisory that was previously in
place. Heat indices will stay just below the critical levels we
look for when issuing one as high temperatures today will be
confined to the mid to upper 80s.

Otherwise, no changes are needed to the forecast package at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1001 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
North to northeast light breezes persist across
Florida Keys waters, but breezes will be periodically stronger in
and around showers and thunderstorms. Breezes will slacken from
moderate to gentle to light to moderate during the day as a trough
deepens over the eastern United States. Periods of variable
breezes will veer southwesterly as large scale ridging rebuilds
over the central United States.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
A lull in convective activity is expected after this morning`s
showers and thunderstorms. VCSH remains in both TAFs as isolated to
scattered showers are expected to pulse around the island chain
throughout the TAF period. TEMPOs will be used when direct impacts
to the terminals are expected. Near surface winds will be generally
out of the east at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1886, a Tropical Storm intensified into a Hurricane
as it moved west northwest through the Straits about 50 miles south
of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.68" was recorded, along
with a peak wind of 48 and numerous gusts to 60 mph. A man was
killed when a building collapsed on Duval st.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  82  90  83 /  40  50  40  30
Marathon  89  81  91  82 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....DP/JAM

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest