![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
600 FXUS62 KKEY 171458 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1058 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1001 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 This morning has been the busiest morning over the past few days! The KBYX radar shows a roughly west to east oriented swath of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The most lightning near Key West occurred when an old boundary from the south collided with a couple of smaller showers that were already sitting over the island around 845 AM local time. The majority of the lightning occurred offshore just southwest of the island, so we hope the sea animals affected are okay. There isn`t anything that indicates this activity will diminish soon, so will go ahead and maintain the 50 percent PoPs for today. These cells will continue to take advantage of the approximately 2200 J/kg of CAPE that was sampled from the balloon launch this morning. Very light and variable winds all the way up to 400mb make it difficult to pinpoint where each cell will drift, so we will continue to message a wet and dreary day. Satellite shows the resulting cloud field is stretching across our island chain and waters, and it looks like it will stay in place through at least the morning and early afternoon. Because of this, we have cancelled the heat advisory that was previously in place. Heat indices will stay just below the critical levels we look for when issuing one as high temperatures today will be confined to the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise, no changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1001 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 North to northeast light breezes persist across Florida Keys waters, but breezes will be periodically stronger in and around showers and thunderstorms. Breezes will slacken from moderate to gentle to light to moderate during the day as a trough deepens over the eastern United States. Periods of variable breezes will veer southwesterly as large scale ridging rebuilds over the central United States. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1001 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A lull in convective activity is expected after this morning`s showers and thunderstorms. VCSH remains in both TAFs as isolated to scattered showers are expected to pulse around the island chain throughout the TAF period. TEMPOs will be used when direct impacts to the terminals are expected. Near surface winds will be generally out of the east at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1886, a Tropical Storm intensified into a Hurricane as it moved west northwest through the Straits about 50 miles south of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.68" was recorded, along with a peak wind of 48 and numerous gusts to 60 mph. A man was killed when a building collapsed on Duval st. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 90 83 / 40 50 40 30 Marathon 89 81 91 82 / 50 50 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....DP/JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest