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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
585 FXUS62 KKEY 121445 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1045 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights a TUTT cell to the northeast of the Greater Antilles, westerlies deep into the eastern United States, and mean layer ridging over the southern Plains. The low-level ridge extends west across south-central Florida and supports gentle to moderate east southeasterlies across the Keys this morning. Satellite derived moisture products (GOES TPW, GOES CH-10, and CIRA LPW) place a narrow band of SAL pressing west into the Straits of Florida. Backward trajectory modeling confirms the source region for this dry plume is over northern Africa. The early morning scattered showers and thunderstorms are now more isolated in coverage, in fact, there are no thunderstorms at the moment. We issued an update to lower rain chances to 20%. All other weather elements are on track and need no adjustments. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge axis planted north of the Keys coastal waters will promote gentle to moderate easterly breezes through the early part of this week. Breezes will slacken and veer to the northwest by Thursday night as a trough dips south along the Eastern Seaboard. As a result, breezes will become more chaotic by Friday as the ridge axis fractures over Florida. A tropical disturbance to the east of the Bahamas will move north towards Bermuda Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Widely scattered showers across the Florida Keys will pulse and move across EYW and MTH in the morning, prompting TEMPO updates and VCSH through noon. A drier air mass will move across the island chain and thus lower shower coverage for the afternoon and evening. Surface breezes will veer east southeasterly and remain 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1926, the daily record low temperature of 71F and the daily record rainfall of 2.59" were both recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872 and rainfall records date back to 1871. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest