Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
019 FXUS62 KKEY 100835 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 435 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 It`s another sweaty July morning across the Florida Keys. Temperatures along the island chain are currently in the mid 80s with oppressive dew points in the upper 70s. Gentle east to southeasterly breezes along the Reef are doing little to quell the sticky feeling outside. Despite our humid conditions, very little cloud cover is observed on GOES nighttime microphysics with only some high cloud debris drifting over the island chain from convection in the northern Bahamas and a small line of broken cumulus from a boundary in the Straits of Florida. The lack of cloud cover is due to the continuing presence of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in the mid levels of the atmosphere that is expected to continue affecting our sensible weather in the short term. Today and tonight will be similar to yesterday`s conditions. Ridging continues to be the dominating feature across Florida setting up a typical July pattern across the Keys. Easterly winds will prevail as the low level high remains nosed over Central Florida. The SAL will continue to suppress PoPs down to a slight chance for today and tonight with the best chance at measurable precipitation from seabreeze convection drifting south from mainland Florida. Tomorrow, we see a return to more normal rain chances as the low level ridge bulges out into the Gulf. As a result, a more moist atmospheric profile and a northeasterly wind shift will be on tap allowing for the possibility of cloud line formation in the afternoon. The low level ridge will then retreat back to its original orientation by Friday veering breezes back to the east. At the same time, a weak tropical wave the western North Atlantic will approach the Eastern Seaboard. While this wave will leave our low level ridge in place, it will pull some deeper layer moisture into our area particularly on Friday night and Saturday resulting in slightly higher the normal PoPs. In its wake, PoPs will return to near normal for the start of the work week as deep layer ridging establishes itself once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. The high will strengthen over the western Atlantic this weekend, bringing moderate easterly breezes to the Keys waters Saturday through at least Sunday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Dry VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the day, as the Saharan Air Layer continues to prevent any shower development. Isolated to scattered convection may propagate SSW from the Everglades toward the terminals this evening, but confidence is too low to mention VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Surface winds will remain from the ESE at 7 to 10 knots today, becoming E at 5 to 8 knots this evening. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2020, the daily record high temperature of 94F was last recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 83 90 82 / 10 10 20 20 Marathon 91 83 90 82 / 10 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Data Acquisition.....Jacobson Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest