Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
534 FXUS62 KKEY 141924 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 324 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 As expected, a cloud line excited along much of the Lower and Middle Keys earlier this afternoon. This was fueled by light and variable winds, ample morning solar heating, steep low-level lapse rates, and great boundary layer moisture up to 800 mb. The cloud line has since started to choke itself off owed to this light flow. KBYX radar is only detecting waning showers along the Lower and Middle Keys, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dotting the Florida Keys marine zones. Temperatures vary widely along the island chain depending on rainfall, ranging from the mid 80s at locations with measurable rainfall, to the lower to mid 90s at the dry communities. Weak steering flow, coupled with an uncapped environment, will dictate the forecast for much of the next seven days. In previous forecast iterations, ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance suggested a weak frontal feature could flirt with the Florida Keys for Friday through the weekend. This is looking a little less likely today. With weaker forcing for ascent ahead of this feature, have decided to lower measurable rain and thunder chances for these periods. Outside of this feature, generally light and variable flow coupled with varying degrees of boundary layer moisture support a near climatological forecast for the next seven days. Highs will generally be in the lower 90s, lows in the lower to mid 80s, and measurable rain chances will hover near 30%. Threats for Heat Advisories will be dictated by daily dew points, which will vary from the mid to upper 70s, to near 80, depending on the ultimate solution for the aforementioned boundary feature. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, Atlantic ridge axis stretching west across the Florida Keys will support light to gentle breezes through Thursday, generally variable. Breezes will shift to the northwest by Thursday night, as a trough dips south along the Eastern Seaboard. As the ridge axis fractures over the Florida Peninsula, breezes will become more chaotic for Friday through Sunday. Once the ridge reestablishes itself late in the weekend through early next week, light south to southwest winds will resume. Tropical Storm Ernesto north of Puerto Rico will likely impact the island of Bermuda as a hurricane Friday night through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. A cloudline impacting the Lower Keys will periodically create light showers over EYW while VCSH is carried TEMPOs will be added if heavy rain is expected. After the cloudline dissipates this evening VCSH will be removed from the TAF. Near surface winds will be light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 93 82 94 83 / 40 30 30 30 Marathon 93 82 94 83 / 50 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest