Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
106 FXUS62 KKEY 151449 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1049 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1008 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 It is definitely August outside this morning as observations along the island chain are showing temperatures already near 90F, and dew points near 80F. The math comes out to heat indices that are already just above 100F. There is a Heat Advisory in effect for today, and it looks like we are on track to see it verify this afternoon as the plentiful sunshine maintains the heat and light winds prevent any mixing of the air. The KBYX radar is detecting isolated showers to the southwest of Key West as well as a line of showers to the north of the island chain, and there is no evidence of anything in place that would lead us to believe that this activity is going to fizzle out. The environment looks relatively favorable to at least support the longevity of what we already have out there with the 12Z RAOB sounding showing ample moisture and growing instability in the lower levels. We will opt to keep the 30 percent PoPs that are currently in the forecast to account for the likelihood of another cloud line firing up near, or even directly over, the islands this afternoon. All of these words to say that weather conditions are developing as expected, and there are no changes or updates needed to the current forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1008 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. An Atlantic ridge axis stretching west across the Florida Keys will support light to gentle breezes through this afternoon, generally variable. Breezes will shift to the northwest by tonight, as a trough dips south along the Eastern Seaboard. As the ridge axis fractures over the Florida Peninsula, breezes will become more chaotic Friday through Sunday. Once the ridge reestablishes itself late in the weekend through early next week, light south to southwest winds will resume. Tropical Storm Ernesto north of Puerto Rico will likely impact the island of Bermuda as a hurricane Friday night through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through at least 16z this afternoon. Thereafter, owed to light and variable winds and ample morning sunshine, a cumulus cloud line is expected to flourish along portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. Have elected to include a several hour window of VCSH for now, with likely amendments and TEMPOs needed once convection fires. Outside of this convective window, rain and thunder chances will remain much lower. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 1964, Marathon recorded a new record high of 98F. This also ties for the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of August for the Marathon area. Temperature records date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 93 83 92 82 / 30 20 30 30 Marathon 93 83 92 82 / 40 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest