411
FXUS62 KKEY 130244
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1044 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1044 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A quieter evening than expected. Initially outflow boundaries
surging off the mainland gave rise to hope that some showers would
develop as they reached the Florida Keys. Unfortunately a lot of
this activity withered before making even so much as a light
shower, though a few sprinkles may have fallen. Another outflow
boundary came southeast across the extreme southeast Gulf of
Mexico and for a time looked like it would collide with residual
boundaries near the Lower Keys. These too fell apart but not
before getting a couple of lone thunderstorms out by the Marquesas
Keys.

Looking at this evenings sounding, there is still some residual
dry in the low levels. It is not much but it was enough to
dissipate shower activity. Even looking upstream Miami sounding
also featured some dry air in the low levels but again not enough
to truly explain why we remained rain free. Winds have clocked
around to the northeast and will gradually continue to box around
the compass towards the east overnight and into Saturday. As they
become easterly we expect winds to surge and with it a slug of
moisture in the BL. This should aid in new showers firing up,
however, it looks like the timing for when the moisture will
return has slowed down a bit from previous model runs and
therefore are depicting a more pessimistic outlook for tonight.
Therefore did drop PoPs to slight chance. Otherwise, made no
changes to the going forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1044 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Gentle to light northeasterly to easterly breezes have
returned and will continue through the remainder of the overnight.
Over the weekend, breezes will increase modestly as the ridge
lifts northward into Central Florida, but will begin to slacken
early next week as the ridge pulls back some into the Atlantic

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions prevail with most of the shower activity having
dwindled before reaching the island terminals. Northeast winds
this evening will becoming increasingly easterly by Saturday
accompanied by a minor surge. Better moisture should filter in on
the easterly direction but confidence is low as to when showers
would re-fire and move across the terminals.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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