Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
340 FXUS62 KKEY 130812 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 412 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Currently - Deep layered ridging blankets the northwestern Atlantic. A surface spoke extends westward across South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This generating light northeasterly breezes across the Keys. The lower to mid level ridge is broader and spread westward across the Gulf of Mexico, while nebulous flow is in place aloft. Last evenings sounding indicated precipitable water well above 2 inches. But there was some modest dryer air and inhibition through the lower levels and CAPE was narrow. This along with ridging in control and stabilizing contributions of late afternoon outflow boundaries have kept shower activity across the Keys minimal. Conditions are seasonable with temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. Forecast - The Atlantic ridge will continue to lift northward into Central Florida today and tonight. This will result in winds strengthening a bit further out of the east. There is some mixed signals in the short term. A swath of increased lower level moisture is expected to arrive within the field of strengthening breezes. In addition, there is some weak lower level cyclonic curvature riding westward across Cuba. This usually means higher rain chances. However, guidance suggests net forcing will be weak and moisture actually falls through some of the lower levels. For now, will maintain low chance PoPs, which is a touch above guidance. Expect conditions to remain near to slightly above normal with highs near to slightly above 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will meander in the mid to upper 70s. Ridging will remain across Central Florida late in the weekend and early next week. However, it is expected to weaken somewhat and retreat eastward a bit. As a result, easterly breezes are expected to trend downwards. Lower level moisture is expected to moisten as what appears to be the remnants of a wave moves across the area. This band of higher moisture will take a few days to clear west of the Keys. Through this period, expect mid to high chance pops. For now will hold onto blanket mid chance pops, which is already advertised. No trends in surface conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 An Atlantic ridge will lift a bit further northward across Florida today and tonight resulting in breezes becoming more easterly and strengthening modestly. Cautions do not appear necessary at this time. The ridge will weaken and retreat eastward early next week, resulting in breezes relaxing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest