Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
036 FXUS62 KKEY 131910 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 310 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a relatively amplified tropical easterly wave passing south of the Florida Keys has resulted in measurable rainfall for much of the Middle and Upper Keys today. Shower activity has been much more isolated in the vicinity of the Lower Keys. This has resulted in quite a spread in current temperatures, with rain-cooled locations reporting around 80F, while dry locations have managed to climb into the lower 90s. For tonight, the aforementioned tropical wave will continue to progress to the west, steering out of our forecast area. However, a seasonably moist profile coupled with somewhat freshened easterly breezes warrants near-normal measurable rain chances. Vorticity and moisture numerical weather prediction products suggest the Florida Keys will be saddled between tropical waves tomorrow. This often results in a subsidence-induced lull in convective activity. Have elected to nudge measurable rain chances down to around 30% for tomorrow, which may need to be adjusted even further in the overnight forecast iteration. Dew points will approach 80F tomorrow. Coupled with temperatures once again in the lower 90s, Heat Advisories will need to be considered for Sunday afternoon and early evening. The next tropical wave should approach the Florida Keys for Sunday night and Monday. Forecast soundings for these periods highlight an uncapped environment, deep tropical moisture, and ample mixed- layer instability (CAPE). These features warrant upping rain and thunder chances to high-end chance levels (around 50%). Rain chances should slowly wane as the week progresses, as a batch of drier air filters across the Keys. Recent NASA dust plume model runs suggest yet another wave of Saharan dust will also approach the Keys late in the week and into the weekend, supporting only slight rain chances for the extended forecast. Outside of any brief rain-cooled periods, temperatures will remain seasonably warm, with highs generally in the lower 90s, and lows in the lower to mid 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a ridge axis associated with an area of high pressure over the North Atlantic will remain north of the Florida Keys, resulting in gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes through Thursday. Moisture undulations in the easterlies will result in somewhat elevated rain and thunder chances through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Showers and occasional thunderstorms in the vicinity of EYW and MTH will continue into the evening, and short-term amendments may be necessary if stronger activity approaches either location. Once the area clears out tonight, VFR conditions will prevail with easterly surface winds of near 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 91 81 90 / 30 30 50 50 Marathon 83 92 81 90 / 30 30 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest