Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
447 FXUS62 KKEY 080244 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1044 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Currently - A broad surface through mid tropospheric ridge stretches from the Atlantic, across the southeastern United States and Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Complicating this is a deep layered cut off low centered off the Carolina Coast embedded within the ridge. At the surface, this low is seen as an inverted trough aligned north and northeast of the Bahamas. This along with day time heating has washed out the pressure gradient across our area and winds are light out of the south. A ribbon of enhanced lower level moisture, at least partially attributable to the trough, remains draped across our area. This evenings sounding indicated lower level moisture remains ample, as is CAPE, and low level inhibition is limited. Despite favorable conditions and an opportunity provided by a Cuban outflow boundary, convective activity has had a difficult time holding together. Short Term Update - Through the overnight period, the previously mentioned inverted trough will rotate a bit northward around the ridge. This along with a cooling mainland will allow the southern flank of the Atlantic ridge to become better defined across our area. In general, winds will remain light and broadly out of the south. Drier lower levels are expected to be carried northward into our area. This should act to lower rain chances. For the time being, moisture remains high and low chance PoPs appear justified. Expect overnight lows to be broadly in the mid 80s with dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A broad Atlantic ridge stretches westward across Florida and Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. An inverted trough trapped north of the Bahamas is washing out the pressure field somewhat. As a result, winds will remain light and largely out of the south through the night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be light out of the south. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest