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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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917 FXUS63 KJKL 141935 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 335 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daytime temperatures will average around normal through the remainder of the week. - Humidity, along with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms will increase late in the week, with the highest probability of storms during the Friday afternoon and evening time frame. && .UPDATE... Issued at 149 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2024 Early afternoon update amounted to minor adjustments to the temps and sky cover. Observed hourly temps have been running slightly higher than advertised in the grids. Consequently, made a small nudge upward for afternoon highs. Based on regional satellite, our afternoon Cu field had shown a bit more substantial development than expected, especially over our higher terrain to our southeast and across our northern zones. Thus increased cloud cover just a bit to account these most recent trends. While at it freshened up the zone wording as well. UPDATE Issued at 1019 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2024 Forecast is pretty much on track this morning. Clouds have cleared across our southeast and valley fog has lifted and dissipated. We can expect some additional thin high clouds to stream across the area through the day along with some fair weather Cu. But overall we expect to see more sun than not. Adjusted temps towards hourly surface observations and made some minor tweaks to the sky cover for clearing across the southeast. Updated the zones to remove morning fog. Otherwise, no other changes to the forecast package. UPDATE Issued at 739 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2024 Update this morning increases Sky cover for the next few hours over the southern part of the forecast area to match current cloud trends. This activity should diminish and move south into Tennessee over the next few hours. Grids were updated with initialization using the latest hourly observations. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2024 Northwest flow aloft continues through the first half of Thursday, when a disturbance moving into an upper ridge axis approaches the Mid-Ohio River Valley. At the surface, high pressure continues to usher a drier air mass in from the north and east, but warm moist advection increases through the day Thursday ahead of the approaching upper disturbance, with a warm front moving to the northeastern third of the forecast area by the end of the period early Thursday evening. For today, drier air moves into the region from the northeast through the daytime hours as a disturbance skirting us to the northeast moves away from the area. With the drier air and nearly full sun for most locations, highs should rise a degree or two from yesterday, with highs on the upper end of the mid-80s. Upper ridge axis approaches tonight from the west, while the lower atmosphere begins to transition from departing surface high pressure to approaching low pressure. This sets up an ideal situation for decent ridge/valley splits, especially in the deeper sheltered central and northeastern valleys that are removed from any bodies of water. Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid-50s in the coldest valleys to lower to mid-60s on the ridgetops. Warm, moist advection gradually increases from the southwest during the day Thursday. A couple of CAMS even develop isolated to widely scattered showers in the afternoon, particularly the 4-km NAMNest and to a lesser degree the NSSL-WRFARW-4km models. However, most models remain dry with just increasing cumulus in the afternoon as the lower atmosphere begins to moisten and stability decreases, so will keep PoPs less than 10 through Thursday afternoon. With warm advection increasing, highs will begin to rise to as high as 5 degrees above normal for mid-August, warmest in the northeast where clouds will be slowest to increase and where there will be some south to southeasterly surface winds causing some weak downslope compressional warming through much of the daytime hours. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 335 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2024 The flow pattern aloft in the extended will start off with hurricane Ernesto churning its way northward through the west central Atlantic, with a trough of low pressure departing the coast of Maine and southeastern Canada. Further west, we will see our weather maker in the form of a slow moving and well developed trough of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes and into New England. This system will bring showers and storms to eastern Kentucky Friday through Saturday, as its surface cold front moves into and then stalls over the area. The rain associated with the front should begin to exit the area to the east Saturday night into early Sunday. After a brief reprieve from the rain behind the front, we are expecting further rounds of rain Sunday through Monday, as a trough aloft moves off to our northeast, and pumps residual moisture into the region. With lift from the low also present, we expect to see scattered showers and storms at times Sunday and Monday, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Once these two rounds of rain come to an end, a ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, and will bring dry weather, mostly clear skies, and light winds to eastern Kentucky from Monday night into the middle of the week. As the ridge moves overhead, conditions will be prime for nightly ridge valley temperature splits the first half of the new work week. With clear skies, light winds, and dry air all on tap, decided to cool the valleys off a bit more than previously forecast, since conditions seem ideal for the ridge/valley differences. A combination of the latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, WPC guidance, and GFS Ensembles were all used to create the forecast, with the evolution of the flow pattern aloft being emphasized. Temperatures will be quite warm overall, with daily highs in the 80s expected. The coolest days will see max values in the lower 80s, while the warmest days could warm into the mid and upper 80s. Nightly lows will be quite pleasant as well, with nightly values ranging from the mid to upper 50s in valleys to the 60s on the surrounding ridgetops. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2024 VFR flight conditions expected through the period. Based on regional satellite, our diurnal Cu field had shown a more robust development than expected, around 060 AGL, especially over our higher terrain to our southeast and across our northern zones. This impacts mainly KJKL, KSJS, and KSYM. Winds will be light and variable through the afternoon, around 5 kts or less becoming light after sunset. Similar to last night, fog will develop within the river valleys overnight, but impacts will be negligible at our terminals. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...RAY