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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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704 FXUS63 KJKL 172105 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 505 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are expected to impact the area through this evening. Damaging wind gusts appears to be the greatest hazardous weather threat and secondary threat of severe hail. - Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday through Wednesday behind a cold front passage late Saturday night. - Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Sunday and Monday, especially in the afternoon and early evening, with a drying trend for Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 505 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024 We are seeing a notable upper low push across the Great Lakes this afternoon and this will reflect down to the mid-levels with embedded shortwaves riding through the associated trough axis across the Ohio valley. We saw a notable boundary where cumulus first developed this afternoon and this has overall been one of the main focus areas for convection this afternoon. Some of these storms have been spiting at times given the somewhat straight and concave up hodographs noted in the SPC mesoanalysis. There remains a risk of severe storms through the remainder of the afternoon and perhaps into the early evening before storms should loose better daytime heating. Outside this very little changes were needed for the near term forecast this afternoon. Tonight, most of the convection will relent through the evening, but some of the CAMs indicate possibly a bit more in the way of showers and thunderstorms into the late night hours. However, CAMs have been all over the place in the way of where convection will be and haven`t been managing the convection this afternoon well. This leads to a fair amount of uncertainty. Given this went more toward a southeastward trend with PoPs through the evening and overnight. This seems to be reasonable given the more cold pool look this is taking on. The highest PoPs will be early in the evening before tapering from west to east through the night. This trend will have to be watched given the uncertainties and lack of CAM support. Outside this overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. Sunday, we will see increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. This as a mid-level trough deepens in the Ohio Valley and it ushers in northwest flow at the surface leading to PoPs in the 60-70 percent chance range mainly during peak heating hours. However, given the northwest flow regime these showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could continue into the evening and perhaps the night, but the HREF suggests overall the trend would be downward for showers through the night. This will have to be looked at closer in additional updates. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 412 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024 The extended period will start off quite active, as an area of low pressure moves through the area on Monday. We will see showers and scattered thunderstorms rumbling through as the trough moves off to the east. The rain should taper off late in the day, and be out of the area by early Monday evening. After that, a large and well developed ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, and will bring dry and very pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky the rest of the week. A much cooler air mass will advect into the region on northwest winds through the middle of the week. In fact, we could see daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, making it feel more like fall than mid-summer. With clear skies, light winds, and strong sunshine, the air mass will finally begin to modify on Thursday. Highs on that day should rebound to more normal highs in the lower 80s. Thursday and Friday should be even warmer, with highs on each of those days reaching the mid to upper 80s. With ridging overhead, and light winds and clear skies expected, conditions will favor ridge valley temperature splits most nights. Some valley locations may fall into the upper 40s Tuesday night and Wednesday night, with low to mid 50s everywhere else. We could also see patchy valley fog each night, especially early on after the rain event moistens everything up. The only weather hazards to speak of would be cloud to ground lightning that will be possible with any thunderstorms on Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024 We are seeing a mix of VFR and MVFR skies to start the period this afternoon. The MVFR CIGs are variable given the in association with the cumulus bases developing this afternoon. This will be the story through the afternoon and evening as convection continues to develop. There is a pronounced boundary noted on satellite this afternoon and this so far has been the focus for convection that has at times resulted in a few strong storms. These have mostly been confined to the I-64 corridor so far, but will drift southward through the TAF period. However, it should be noted that some of the storms have exhibited left-moving motions to the northeast when storms have split. Therefore, storm motions right now will either be southeast or northeast depending on if they happen to split. Predominately these will more in the way of eastward and southeastward storm motions. Tonight there will be the potential for lower CIGs and possibly Vis as we move toward the overnight and early morning hours Sunday. There is some uncertainty on this as some model guidance suggest more convection would be possible later tonight. The winds will remain fairly light and variable through much of the period, but some gustier winds would be expected with thunderstorms and perhaps some 15 knot gust during peak mixing this afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ