704
FXUS63 KJKL 172105
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
505 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are expected to impact the area through
  this evening. Damaging wind gusts appears to be the greatest
  hazardous weather threat and secondary threat of severe hail.

- Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday through Wednesday
  behind a cold front passage late Saturday night.

- Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Sunday and
  Monday, especially in the afternoon and early evening, with a
  drying trend for Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 505 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024

We are seeing a notable upper low push across the Great Lakes this
afternoon and this will reflect down to the mid-levels with embedded
shortwaves riding through the associated trough axis across the
Ohio valley. We saw a notable boundary where cumulus first
developed this afternoon and this has overall been one of the main
focus areas for convection this afternoon. Some of these storms
have been spiting at times given the somewhat straight and
concave up hodographs noted in the SPC mesoanalysis. There
remains a risk of severe storms through the remainder of the
afternoon and perhaps into the early evening before storms should
loose better daytime heating. Outside this very little changes
were needed for the near term forecast this afternoon.

Tonight, most of the convection will relent through the evening, but
some of the CAMs indicate possibly a bit more in the way of showers
and thunderstorms into the late night hours. However, CAMs have been
all over the place in the way of where convection will be and
haven`t been managing the convection this afternoon well. This leads
to a fair amount of  uncertainty. Given this went more toward a
southeastward trend with PoPs through the evening and overnight.
This seems to be reasonable given the more cold pool look this is
taking on. The highest PoPs will be early in the evening before
tapering from west to east through the night. This trend will have
to be watched given the uncertainties and lack of CAM support.
Outside this overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday, we will see increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and evening. This as a mid-level trough
deepens in the Ohio Valley and it ushers in northwest flow at the
surface leading to PoPs in the 60-70 percent chance range mainly
during peak heating hours. However, given the northwest flow
regime these showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could continue
into the evening and perhaps the night, but the HREF suggests
overall the trend would be downward for showers through the night.
This will have to be looked at closer in additional updates.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 412 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024

The extended period will start off quite active, as an area of low
pressure moves through the area on Monday. We will see showers and
scattered thunderstorms rumbling through as the trough moves off to
the east. The rain should taper off late in the day, and be out of
the area by early Monday evening. After that, a large and well
developed ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, and
will bring dry and very pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky the
rest of the week. A much cooler air mass will advect into the region
on northwest winds through the middle of the week. In fact, we could
see daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday, making it feel more like fall than mid-summer. With clear
skies, light winds, and strong sunshine, the air mass will finally
begin to modify on Thursday. Highs on that day should rebound to
more normal highs in the lower 80s. Thursday and Friday should be
even warmer, with highs on each of those days reaching the mid to
upper 80s.

With ridging overhead, and light winds and clear skies expected,
conditions will favor ridge valley temperature splits most nights.
Some valley locations may fall into the upper 40s Tuesday night and
Wednesday night, with low to mid 50s everywhere else. We could also
see patchy valley fog each night, especially early on after the rain
event moistens everything up. The only weather hazards to speak of
would be cloud to ground lightning that will be possible with any
thunderstorms on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024

We are seeing a mix of VFR and MVFR skies to start the period this
afternoon. The MVFR CIGs are variable given the in association
with the cumulus bases developing this afternoon. This will be the
story through the afternoon and evening as convection continues
to develop. There is a pronounced boundary noted on satellite
this afternoon and this so far has been the focus for convection
that has at times resulted in a few strong storms. These have
mostly been confined to the I-64 corridor so far, but will drift
southward through the TAF period. However, it should be noted that
some of the storms have exhibited left-moving motions to the
northeast when storms have split. Therefore, storm motions right
now will either be southeast or northeast depending on if they
happen to split. Predominately these will more in the way of
eastward and southeastward storm motions. Tonight there will be
the potential for lower CIGs and possibly Vis as we move toward
the overnight and early morning hours Sunday. There is some
uncertainty on this as some model guidance suggest more convection
would be possible later tonight. The winds will remain fairly
light and variable through much of the period, but some gustier
winds would be expected with thunderstorms and perhaps some 15
knot gust during peak mixing this afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ