113
FXUS62 KJAX 160640
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
240 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Showers have come to an end across the area with clearing of cloud
cover also well underway. Drier than normal air will allow a
mostly clear night to unfold, as well as some low temps below 70
for some for the first time in months. Some patchy fog cannot be
ruled out over interior areas overnight as winds die down quite a
bit and low temps also fall to a bit below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Unseasonably dry weather is in store for Friday and Saturday. Drier
airmass (PWATS < 1.3 in.) and stacked ridging across the SE US
will squash convection across the area into Saturday. Breezy ENE
winds will result in a east-west temperature gradient with highs
ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to low 90s inland on
Friday. Radiational cooling on Friday night will allow lows to
fall to the mid and upper 60s inland and remain in the 70s along
the coast. Upper trough over the Great Lakes digs southward
driving another cold front into the southeastern states Saturday
night. Convection developing ahead of this front will mostly
remain north of the Altamaha/Ocmulgee Rivers in SE GA, but an
isolated shower or thunderstorm may survive its trek across these
rivers on Saturday night before dissipating to the north of
Douglas and Alma. Developing south-southwesterly flow in advance
of the approaching cold front will begin to advect moisture back
into our area resulting in overnight lows Saturday night rising
back into the low to mid 70s.

Main concern into the weekend will be rough surf and a high risk
of rip currents at area beaches due to building long period swells
from distant Hurricane Ernesto. Despite good beach weather
expected, it is not advised to enter the hazardous surf zone.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Thunderstorm potential makes a return on Sunday as a cold front
begins to move into SE GA from the north- northwest. Southwest
flow ahead of the front will allow for the Gulf coast sea breeze
to push well inland, with convection expected during the afternoon
hours on Sunday, spreading from west to east over interior
locations. The frontal boundary is expected to continue through
the area on Monday before it begins to slow down. Models suggest
it will stall near the FL/GA line to the I-10 corridor in NE FL
during the early part of the upcoming week. Dry air behind the
front will keep precipitation chances lower for SE GA in
comparison to NE FL through midweek.

High Temps on Sunday will get into the low to mid 90s. By Monday,
high temps will be slightly cooler as they are expected to only
get into the low 90s. Overnight lows will primarily be in the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Localized light fog will impact a few inland fog-prone terminals
through dawn, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Breezy
northeasterly winds will develop again late this morning with
gusts peaking around 20-25 knots this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A ridge of high pressure will extend down the coast of the southeastern
US through Friday night, as distant northward moving Hurricane
Ernesto passes well to the east. As Ernesto tracks away to the
northeast Saturday into Saturday night the high will build
overhead of the area waters. The high will center to the southeast
Sunday into Monday, as a trough digs along the east coast of the
US. Swells from Ernesto will result in increasing seas, with seas
likely reaching 7ft on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory for the
outer waters of SE GA and NE FL has been issued for Friday into
Friday night.

Rip Currents: High risk of Rip Currents through the weekend for all
local beaches due to long period swells from distant Ernesto.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  68  92  73 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  88  74  89  75 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  89  70  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  87  73  88  72 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  90  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  91  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$