![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
113 FXUS62 KJAX 160640 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 240 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 828 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Showers have come to an end across the area with clearing of cloud cover also well underway. Drier than normal air will allow a mostly clear night to unfold, as well as some low temps below 70 for some for the first time in months. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out over interior areas overnight as winds die down quite a bit and low temps also fall to a bit below normal. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Unseasonably dry weather is in store for Friday and Saturday. Drier airmass (PWATS < 1.3 in.) and stacked ridging across the SE US will squash convection across the area into Saturday. Breezy ENE winds will result in a east-west temperature gradient with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to low 90s inland on Friday. Radiational cooling on Friday night will allow lows to fall to the mid and upper 60s inland and remain in the 70s along the coast. Upper trough over the Great Lakes digs southward driving another cold front into the southeastern states Saturday night. Convection developing ahead of this front will mostly remain north of the Altamaha/Ocmulgee Rivers in SE GA, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm may survive its trek across these rivers on Saturday night before dissipating to the north of Douglas and Alma. Developing south-southwesterly flow in advance of the approaching cold front will begin to advect moisture back into our area resulting in overnight lows Saturday night rising back into the low to mid 70s. Main concern into the weekend will be rough surf and a high risk of rip currents at area beaches due to building long period swells from distant Hurricane Ernesto. Despite good beach weather expected, it is not advised to enter the hazardous surf zone. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Thunderstorm potential makes a return on Sunday as a cold front begins to move into SE GA from the north- northwest. Southwest flow ahead of the front will allow for the Gulf coast sea breeze to push well inland, with convection expected during the afternoon hours on Sunday, spreading from west to east over interior locations. The frontal boundary is expected to continue through the area on Monday before it begins to slow down. Models suggest it will stall near the FL/GA line to the I-10 corridor in NE FL during the early part of the upcoming week. Dry air behind the front will keep precipitation chances lower for SE GA in comparison to NE FL through midweek. High Temps on Sunday will get into the low to mid 90s. By Monday, high temps will be slightly cooler as they are expected to only get into the low 90s. Overnight lows will primarily be in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Localized light fog will impact a few inland fog-prone terminals through dawn, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Breezy northeasterly winds will develop again late this morning with gusts peaking around 20-25 knots this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A ridge of high pressure will extend down the coast of the southeastern US through Friday night, as distant northward moving Hurricane Ernesto passes well to the east. As Ernesto tracks away to the northeast Saturday into Saturday night the high will build overhead of the area waters. The high will center to the southeast Sunday into Monday, as a trough digs along the east coast of the US. Swells from Ernesto will result in increasing seas, with seas likely reaching 7ft on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters of SE GA and NE FL has been issued for Friday into Friday night. Rip Currents: High risk of Rip Currents through the weekend for all local beaches due to long period swells from distant Ernesto. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 68 92 73 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 88 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 89 70 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 87 73 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 90 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 91 68 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$