Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
118 FXUS62 KJAX 090020 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 820 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 815 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast for tonight was updated to reflect latest radar trends. Mainly anticipate isolated to scattered showers and storms tonight, though with a likely downward trend in convective intensity and basic areal coverage. However, lingering convection overnight may produce brief period of heavy rainfall in spots for inland areas, given the humid airmass and mild overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. There is also a hint of a weak mid level low over inland southeast GA that helps support some of the guidance indicating isolated to widely scattered convection overnight. Majority of the recent guidance shows a diminished trend in the convection (mainly isolated coverage) after midnight, with support from the HRRR and FV3, so have maintained a minimum of slight chances after midnight. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Plenty of moisture in the area Wednesday for widespread rain and storm chances in the afternoon with thunderstorm chances more likely west of I-95, pushing inland as sea-breezes converge. Ample moisture over Florida`s Suwannee Valley and southeast Georgia will create conditions for moderate to heavy rain over those area. Daytime high temperatures will be in the low 90s over inland southeast Georgia with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and northeast Florida. Showers may linger after sunset but should dissipate by midnight. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s with temperatures staying slightly warmer along the coast. Thursday, conditions dry out slightly to bring PWATs just under 2" over most of northeast Florida with some of the higher values hovering over southeast Georgia. This will lower precip chances compared to Wednesday, especially over northeast Florida. Afternoon rain and storms are still expected as temperatures increase into the afternoon and sea-breezes converge inland. Temperatures increase slightly to be in the low 90s over inland areas with coastal locations staying slightly cooler. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s with temperatures along the coast in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Daily rain and thunderstorms starting over inland northeast Florida in the morning and increasing in intensity and coverage each afternoon. The Gulf sea-breeze will make its way well inland through the week, creating the highest storm chances west of I-95. Daytime highs will be slightly above average for this time of year, with temperatures in the mid 90s at inland locations. The Atlantic sea-breeze will help keep coastal temperatures slightly cooler in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices are expected to peak each afternoon around 100-105 degrees. Overnight temperatures will be in the 70s. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS) Issued at 810 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Currently, convection has moved away from the TAF sites so may need to amend to be more optimistic in the TAFs for the rest of the evening. Isolated showers/convection possible overnight (after 03z), but too low chance to show any PROB30 or TEMPO groups. A more active convective day anticipated Wednesday so have already placed in VCSH/VCTS after 16z, and some PROB30 and TEMPO groups for the afternoon hours given medium to high confidence in thunderstorm chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Daily rain and thunderstorms starting over inland northeast Florida in the morning and increasing in intensity and coverage each afternoon. The Gulf sea-breeze will make its way well inland through the week, creating the highest storm chances west of I-95. Daytime highs will be slightly above average for this time of year, with temperatures in the mid 90s at inland locations. The Atlantic sea-breeze will help keep coastal temperatures slightly cooler in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices are expected to peak each afternoon around 100-105 degrees. Overnight temperatures will be in the 70s. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents with long-period onshore swell today. Moderate risk is likely Wednesday as well with the sea breeze development. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 91 73 92 / 40 80 30 60 SSI 77 89 76 90 / 20 50 30 40 JAX 74 92 74 93 / 30 70 20 60 SGJ 76 91 75 92 / 30 60 20 50 GNV 73 92 72 93 / 20 70 10 60 OCF 74 91 73 92 / 10 70 10 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$