545
FXUS62 KJAX 111756
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
156 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon, building with the Gulf coast sea breeze and building
primarily over northeast Florida and along the coastline. The
mostly stationary frontal boundary will continue to linger over
Georgia today and will maintain a southwesterly flow over the
forecast area. Heat Advisory remains in effect through the
afternoon and into this evening with humid areas not influenced by
convection more likely to reach 108 or higher. Conditions will
cool after sunset with remaining convection becoming more
dispersed this evening. High temperatures this afternoon will rise
into the mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down
into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower
80s along the coast. Heat index values today will rise to be as
high as 110 to 112 Fahrenheit.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Southwest flow will continue Monday before slowly shifting to more
northwesterly Tuesday, this flow will help keep the east coast sea
breeze pinned to the coast. With the Atlantic sea breeze pinned,
temperatures beach-side will be able to rise into the lower to mid
90s, with inland highs reaching the mid to upper 90s for inland SE
GA. Along I-75 there will be an earlier start to showers and
storms coming in off the Gulf, allowing temperatures to be a few
degrees cooler than the rest of NE FL. Highest thunderstorm
coverage will be over north central Florida, with overall coverage
decreasing Tuesday to 20-50% as NW flow brings in lower PWATs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A lingering front over Georgia will make it`s way southward over
the area midweek, with high pressure to the north trailing behind,
lowering precipitation chances Friday and Saturday across the
area. Temperatures will lower Thursday through the weekend as
onshore winds build, leaving highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s
each day, with the `cooler` temps along the coast.

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop soon, moving into the
Caribbean Sea, then making a sharp turn northward. The system is
forecast to stay well east of the local area, although hazardous
beach conditions are likely, with dangerous rip currents, as well
as rough surf and boating this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Initially VFR conditions this morning will give way to scattered
convection in the late morning and early afternoon hours with
thunderstorms beginning to form near TAF sites by around 16-18z.
Prevailing surface winds will be out of the southwest with
sustained speeds of about 5 to 10 knots, with winds becoming more
gusty and variable in the presence of thunderstorms. Convection
will become dispersed by around 01-03z with predominantly VFR
conditions and mild winds through the end of the forecasted
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A surface trough will remain situated to the west of our local
waters through midweek, resulting in prevailing south-
southwesterly winds across our local waters. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will progress east-northeastward across mainly the
near shore waters each afternoon and early evening. Outside of
thunderstorm activity, winds will become south-southeasterly over
the near shore waters each afternoon as the sea breeze pushes
slowly inland. A cold front will then approach our area from the
north on Wednesday, pushing through the Georgia waters on
Wednesday afternoon and evening and the northeast Florida waters
by Thursday morning. High pressure building over New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states in the wake of this frontal boundary will
wedge down the southeastern seaboard late this week, creating
onshore winds. Meanwhile, a developing tropical cyclone located
east of the Bahamas is expected to turn northward late this week,
resulting in building seas and increasingly rough surf throughout
our local waters by next weekend.

Rip Currents: Low to moderate rip current risk through Monday. An
elevated rip current risk is likely at all area beaches late this
week and especially next weekend as swells from a distant
tropical cyclone push into the surf zone.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Water levels appear to be cresting just below major flood status
along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the gauge at Fort
White. Moderate flooding will continue around this gauge during
the next several days. Rises will continue downstream towards the
Three Rivers Estates gauge, where major flooding is forecast to
materialize by midweek. Crests have occurred along middle portions
of the Santa Fe near the gauge at High Springs, where water
levels will fall back to minor flooding by late Sunday night.
Otherwise, minor flooding will continue during the next several
days upstream near the gauges at O`Leno State Park and Worthington
Springs.

Water levels are cresting just below a moderate flood along upper
portions of the Suwannee River near Suwannee Springs. Minor
flooding will continue through midweek upstream near the gauge at
White Springs. Rises will continue downstream along lower
portions of the Suwannee River during the next week or so, with
minor flooding forecast at several gauges from around the gauge
at Luraville and points downstream.

Water levels are cresting in a moderate flood along lower
portions of the Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson. Minor
flooding continues upstream near the gauge at Waycross, where
water levels are forecast to fall below flood stage by Monday
afternoon.

Water levels are cresting in a moderate flooding along lower
portions of the Altamaha River near the Everett City gauge. River
levels have crested in a minor flood further upstream, where
water levels will fall below flood stage near the gauge at
Doctortown by this afternoon.

Moderate flooding will continue through midweek along the St.
Marys River near the gauge at Macclenny, with water levels
downstream cresting in a major flood near the gauge at Traders
Hill.

Crests have occurred along the Alapaha River, where water levels
have fallen below flood stage near the gauge at Statenville. Minor
flooding continues downstream near the gauge at Jennings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  20
SSI  81  91  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  76  96  76  96 /  40  50  10  30
SGJ  78  93  76  94 /  40  40  10  30
GNV  75  93  74  93 /  10  60   0  40
OCF  75  93  76  94 /  10  60   0  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-033-038-120-124-125-132-133-137-138-140-220-225-232-237-
     240-322-325-422-425-522.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-162-
     163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$