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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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026 FXUS62 KJAX 141749 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 149 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Peak heating into the lower/middle 90s across NE FL along with dew point temps into the middle/upper 70s, will support widespread heat indices into the 105-110 range early this afternoon and the heat advisory remains in place for most of NE FL. The frontal boundary along the FL/GA border will continue pushing slowly southward and will help become the focus for afternoon showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds and a few strong storms are expected, but widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. Northeast winds will increase behind the frontal boundary, mainly along Atlantic Coastal areas and even near breezy levels around 15G25 mph along the SE GA coastal areas at times. Afternoon/evening convection should fade over inland areas after sunset, but the onshore flow will continue scattered showers and storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters which could push into the Atlantic Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor during the late overnight/pre-dawn hours towards sunrise Thursday morning. Behind the frontal boundary over inland areas of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley some patchy fog can be expected by sunrise Thursday morning as Min temps fall closer to normal values in the lower/middle 70s inland, but remain in the upper 70s/near 80F along the coastal Atlantic areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure ridging wedges down the east coast and covers the area Thursday and Friday creating a northeast to easterly flow. The onshore flow along with some lingering moisture Thursday over NE FL will aid in producing some scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two beginning along the NE FL coast in the morning and making its way inland into the afternoon as the sea-breeze begins to pick up. Drier air continues to fill in for Friday, creating mostly clear sunny skies and lower humidities making for a beautiful end to the work week. Thursday and Friday daytime temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with temperatures along the coast staying a bit cooler with the onshore winds. Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s inland with coastal temperatures in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Moisture begins to fill back in over the weekend and into the beginning of next week with the return of convection Sunday afternoon. Upper level troughing centers itself over the area by Sunday and sticks around into the beginning of the week as a cold front begins to make its way into SE GA Sunday morning. The cold front will make its way south towards the FL/GA line by Tuesday. Expect scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms beginning Sunday and into next week ahead of the cold front and along the sea-breeze boundary with stronger storms possible along I-95 where boundaries converge in the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s staying slightly cooler along the coast with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Convection starting to kick off along the I-95 corridor and will impact SSI/JAX/CRG/VQQ/SGJ through 22Z with MVFR conds in SHRAS and TEMPO TSRAS before shifting inland and potential to impact GNV as well in the 19-23Z time frame, before convection fades to VCSH around sunset. The gusty NE winds at 10-12G15-18 knots along the Atlantic Coastal TAF sites will fade around sunset except remain elevated at SGJ/SSI through the night. Light winds less than 5 knots develop at GNV/VQQ and models are trending towards some low clouds and possible MVFR fog, so have tweaked into that direction with this TAF package. NE winds increase on Thursday morning and the onshore flow will likely bring scattered showers onshore and for now have placed VCSH in all TAF sites in the 13-15Z time frame along with MVFR CIGS in the 2000-3000 ft range expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A frontal boundary continues to move southeast across the area Today as a high pressure ridge wedges down the east coast Tonight through Thursday. Northward moving Tropical storm Ernesto is expected to strengthen as it moves well to the east of the area Thursday and Friday. While the system is expected to pass to the east of the region, it will act to increase waves across the area. As a result, Small Craft Advisory level wave heights are possible for Friday and Saturday. The high pressure ridge will be over the area Friday and Saturday, then it will build more toward the southeast Sunday as a trough approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Moderate to High Thursday, High Friday and Saturday && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Surface and transport winds will shift to northeasterly after sunrise across southeast Georgia, while northwesterly transport winds prevail into the early afternoon hours for locations south of the I-10 corridor. Breezy northeasterly surface winds will develop at coastal locations this afternoon. Generally fair daytime dispersion values are expected across our area, except good values for the Suwannee Valley. Breezy northeasterly transport winds will overspread our region on Thursday, with breezy surface winds expected along the I-95 corridor that will spread inland during the afternoon hours. These breezy conditions will create good daytime dispersion values region-wide, with marginally high values possible for inland locations. Surface and transport winds will shift to east-northeasterly on Friday, with breezy conditions continuing at coastal locations. Good daytime dispersion values are forecast nearly area-wide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 91 67 91 / 20 10 0 0 SSI 78 87 76 87 / 20 10 0 0 JAX 75 88 71 89 / 20 20 0 0 SGJ 77 87 75 87 / 30 30 0 10 GNV 74 88 69 90 / 20 40 0 0 OCF 74 91 71 92 / 50 50 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ023-024-030-031- 033-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-225-232-237-240-322- 325-422-425. GA...None. AM...None. && $$