Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
974 FXUS62 KJAX 072318 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 718 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Scattered showers are currently moving through the area early this afternoon in a southwest to northeast direction thanks to the predominantly southwesterly flow. Activity will primarily be focused for locations along the I-10 corridor and into SE GA, with some activity during the mid afternoon hours along north central FL as the Gulf sea breeze makes its way inland. With PWATs currently around 2", there is potential for heavy rainfall with any showers or storms that develop. Slow moving or training showers/storms may cause for some localized flooding for low-lying areas and those locations which have had seen a good amount of rainfall during the past couple of days. Activity should begin to dwindle during the early evening hours as showers/storms move offshore. Highs for this afternoon will be in the lower 90s across NE FL and coastal locations with SE GA primarily in the mid 90s. Lows in the 70s area wide during the overnight hours into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Weak west and southwest deep layer flow remains over the area Tuesday through Wednesday, with a sfc ridge axis in fairly typical place in summertime over central FL or south central FL. PWATs remain elevated both days at close to 1.7 to 2 inches on Tuesday and 1.8 to 2.2 inches on Wednesday. The pattern will favor initial convection firing along the west coast sea breeze early in the day and progressing slowly eastward and increasing in coverage during the afternoon and early evening. Some stronger storms possible central and east parts of the forecast area given the pattern. Will probably lean toward 50-70 percent coverage on Tuesday and then nudging up POPs Wednesday a bit given the PWATs will be higher with nearly all guidance favoring more QPF for the Wednesday period. While temps aloft today are on the warm side with 500 mb at -6C, temps aloft cool gradually Tue-Wed as weak mid level disturbances affect the area. This should result in stronger daytime instability and favor localized heavy rainfall, potential for gustier winds of about 50 mph, and more frequent lightning. Mean west- southwest flow is only 6-7 knots Tuesday, then drops to only 3-5 knots on Wednesday which again suggests a localized heavy rainfall/flooding threat with a quick 1-3 inches in 1 hour possible. Temperatures will be just at or above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the 90s area-wide, even near the east coast. Lows in the lower to mid 70s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The mean layer flow will remain generally westerly this period with a low to mid level ridge remaining to the south of the area across the central Gulf and central FL. Flow may be a little stronger Friday and Saturday as a low level trough moves into the southern Appalachians, with a slight shift to the west- northwest by Sunday and Monday. PWATs remain slightly above normal this period, about 1.8 to 2 inches, plus or minus a tenth or two. This will allow for diurnal showers and storms each day, with POPs of at least 40-60 percent each day. Temperatures will be near normal to slightly above normal, in the lower 90s with mild lows in the 70s. Heat indices of about 100-105 are likely each day, potentially a little higher in some spots. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 714 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Convection has shifted NW of all TAF sites so far this evening and any lingering shower chances are too low to include in the next TAF package, so VFR conds are expected through the overnight hours with light South to Southwest winds, which continue into the morning hours as they shift more West to Southwest during morning heating. Gulf coast sea breeze should develop and push inland with some impacts to GNV by the 16-17Z time frame, while the East Coast sea breeze will slowly push inland and start to trigger convection in the 17-18Z time frame, with outflows and other convection developing through the afternoon and have added in PROB30 for MVFR TSRA activity through the 23-24Z time frame, except for SSI where rainfall chances remain too low for PROB30 groups. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 With high pressure extending across central Florida and a surface trough across Georgia, southwest winds will prevail with a shift to onshore as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland each afternoon this week. Scattered showers and storms will move offshore of the coast in the afternoon and early evening, with a chance of some thunderstorms capable of strong winds and frequent lightning. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk continues through into midweek as long period easterly swell continue and winds shift to become onshore each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 94 74 92 / 20 50 20 80 SSI 77 90 77 89 / 20 30 20 50 JAX 75 93 74 92 / 20 50 30 70 SGJ 75 92 75 90 / 20 50 30 60 GNV 74 93 73 92 / 10 70 20 80 OCF 74 91 74 91 / 10 60 20 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$