026
FXUS62 KJAX 141749
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
149 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Peak heating into the lower/middle 90s across NE FL along with dew
point temps into the middle/upper 70s, will support widespread
heat indices into the 105-110 range early this afternoon and the
heat advisory remains in place for most of NE FL. The frontal
boundary along the FL/GA border will continue pushing slowly
southward and will help become the focus for afternoon showers and
storms, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds and a few
strong storms are expected, but widespread severe weather is not
expected at this time. Northeast winds will increase behind the
frontal boundary, mainly along Atlantic Coastal areas and even
near breezy levels around 15G25 mph along the SE GA coastal areas
at times. Afternoon/evening convection should fade over inland
areas after sunset, but the onshore flow will continue scattered
showers and storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters which could
push into the Atlantic Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor during the
late overnight/pre-dawn hours towards sunrise Thursday morning.
Behind the frontal boundary over inland areas of SE GA and the
Suwannee Valley some patchy fog can be expected by sunrise
Thursday morning as Min temps fall closer to normal values in the
lower/middle 70s inland, but remain in the upper 70s/near 80F
along the coastal Atlantic areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

High pressure ridging wedges down the east coast and covers the
area Thursday and Friday creating a northeast to easterly flow.
The onshore flow along with some lingering moisture Thursday over
NE FL will aid in producing some scattered showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm or two beginning along the NE FL coast in
the morning and making its way inland into the afternoon as the
sea-breeze begins to pick up. Drier air continues to fill in for
Friday, creating mostly clear sunny skies and lower humidities
making for a beautiful end to the work week. Thursday and Friday
daytime temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s inland
with temperatures along the coast staying a bit cooler with the
onshore winds. Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 60s
to low 70s inland with coastal temperatures in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Moisture begins to fill back in over the weekend and into the
beginning of next week with the return of convection Sunday
afternoon. Upper level troughing centers itself over the area by
Sunday and sticks around into the beginning of the week as a cold
front begins to make its way into SE GA Sunday morning. The cold
front will make its way south towards the FL/GA line by Tuesday.
Expect scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms beginning
Sunday and into next week ahead of the cold front and along the
sea-breeze boundary with stronger storms possible along I-95 where
boundaries converge in the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime
temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s staying slightly cooler
along the coast with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 70s
inland and upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Convection starting to kick off along the I-95 corridor and will
impact SSI/JAX/CRG/VQQ/SGJ through 22Z with MVFR conds in SHRAS
and TEMPO TSRAS before shifting inland and potential to impact GNV
as well in the 19-23Z time frame, before convection fades to VCSH
around sunset. The gusty NE winds at 10-12G15-18 knots along the
Atlantic Coastal TAF sites will fade around sunset except remain
elevated at SGJ/SSI through the night. Light winds less than 5
knots develop at GNV/VQQ and models are trending towards some low
clouds and possible MVFR fog, so have tweaked into that direction
with this TAF package. NE winds increase on Thursday morning and
the onshore flow will likely bring scattered showers onshore and
for now have placed VCSH in all TAF sites in the 13-15Z time frame
along with MVFR CIGS in the 2000-3000 ft range expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A frontal boundary continues to move southeast across the area
Today as a high pressure ridge wedges down the east coast Tonight
through Thursday. Northward moving Tropical storm Ernesto is
expected to strengthen as it moves well to the east of the area
Thursday and Friday. While the system is expected to pass to the
east of the region, it will act to increase waves across the area.
As a result, Small Craft Advisory level wave heights are possible
for Friday and Saturday. The high pressure ridge will be over the
area Friday and Saturday, then it will build more toward the
southeast Sunday as a trough approaches from the northwest.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Moderate to High Thursday, High
Friday and Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Surface and transport winds will shift to northeasterly after
sunrise across southeast Georgia, while northwesterly transport
winds prevail into the early afternoon hours for locations south
of the I-10 corridor. Breezy northeasterly surface winds will
develop at coastal locations this afternoon. Generally fair
daytime dispersion values are expected across our area, except
good values for the Suwannee Valley. Breezy northeasterly
transport winds will overspread our region on Thursday, with
breezy surface winds expected along the I-95 corridor that will
spread inland during the afternoon hours. These breezy conditions
will create good daytime dispersion values region-wide, with
marginally high values possible for inland locations. Surface and
transport winds will shift to east-northeasterly on Friday, with
breezy conditions continuing at coastal locations. Good daytime
dispersion values are forecast nearly area-wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  91  67  91 /  20  10   0   0
SSI  78  87  76  87 /  20  10   0   0
JAX  75  88  71  89 /  20  20   0   0
SGJ  77  87  75  87 /  30  30   0  10
GNV  74  88  69  90 /  20  40   0   0
OCF  74  91  71  92 /  50  50   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ023-024-030-031-
     033-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-225-232-237-240-322-
     325-422-425.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$