![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
082 FXUS62 KJAX 150158 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 958 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 954 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Diurnally enhanced convection will continue to fade across inland areas west of Highway 301 over the next few hours with coastal showers and isolated storms increasing in coverage near and south of the surface front that was edging southward near KSSI. Breezy ENE winds will continue overnight near the coast, with coastal showers increasing in coverage toward sunrise. A few locally heavy bands of rainfall are possible, especially for the NE FL coast inland toward the St. Johns River basin where convergence will be strongest. Mild lows will range from low 70s across inland SE GA to the mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Peak heating into the lower/middle 90s across NE FL along with dew point temps into the middle/upper 70s, will support widespread heat indices into the 105-110 range early this afternoon and the heat advisory remains in place for most of NE FL. The frontal boundary along the FL/GA border will continue pushing slowly southward and will help become the focus for afternoon showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds and a few strong storms are expected, but widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. Northeast winds will increase behind the frontal boundary, mainly along Atlantic Coastal areas and even near breezy levels around 15G25 mph along the SE GA coastal areas at times. Afternoon/evening convection should fade over inland areas after sunset, but the onshore flow will continue scattered showers and storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters which could push into the Atlantic Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor during the late overnight/pre-dawn hours towards sunrise Thursday morning. Behind the frontal boundary over inland areas of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley some patchy fog can be expected by sunrise Thursday morning as Min temps fall closer to normal values in the lower/middle 70s inland, but remain in the upper 70s/near 80F along the coastal Atlantic areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure ridging wedges down the east coast and covers the area Thursday and Friday creating a northeast to easterly flow. The onshore flow along with some lingering moisture Thursday over NE FL will aid in producing some scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two beginning along the NE FL coast in the morning and making its way inland into the afternoon as the sea-breeze begins to pick up. Drier air continues to fill in for Friday, creating mostly clear sunny skies and lower humidities making for a beautiful end to the work week. Thursday and Friday daytime temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with temperatures along the coast staying a bit cooler with the onshore winds. Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s inland with coastal temperatures in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Moisture begins to fill back in over the weekend and into the beginning of next week with the return of convection Sunday afternoon. Upper level troughing centers itself over the area by Sunday and sticks around into the beginning of the week as a cold front begins to make its way into SE GA Sunday morning. The cold front will make its way south towards the FL/GA line by Tuesday. Expect scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms beginning Sunday and into next week ahead of the cold front and along the sea-breeze boundary with stronger storms possible along I-95 where boundaries converge in the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s staying slightly cooler along the coast with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 752 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 TS restrictions will continue to impact GNV over the next hour with VCSH and periods of MVFR cigs impacting the other terminals tonight as showers move inland under ENE winds as a front slides southward down the local Atlantic coast. At this time, only indicated prevailing MVFR at SSI based on obs between 00z-06z. For other terminals, obs, MOS and NBH guidance only indicated < 10% of MVFR conditions through 06z, so modified TAFs for only SCT020 bases vs broken. After 06z, ENE winds weaken to < 6 kts at VQQ and GNV while remaining 5-10 kts at other terminals. Lower clouds will skirt coastal locations, with the best potential for MVFR to IFR cigs 06-12z toward VQQ, GNV and possibly SGJ. At this time carried TEMPO groups of VQQ and GNV. After 12z, coastal showers with MVFR conditions are possible, then convection spreads inland and WSW into the afternoon with TS potential highest at GNV where VCTS was indicated, with drier air but gusty ENE winds and clearing skies for eastern and coastal terminals into the late afternoon and early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A frontal boundary continues to move southeast across the area Today as a high pressure ridge wedges down the east coast Tonight through Thursday. Northward moving Tropical storm Ernesto is expected to strengthen as it moves well to the east of the area Thursday and Friday. While the system is expected to pass to the east of the region, it will act to increase waves across the area. As a result, Small Craft Advisory level wave heights are possible for Friday and Saturday. The high pressure ridge will be over the area Friday and Saturday, then it will build more toward the southeast Sunday as a trough approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Moderate to High Thursday, High Friday and Saturday && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Surface and transport winds will shift to northeasterly after sunrise across southeast Georgia, while northwesterly transport winds prevail into the early afternoon hours for locations south of the I-10 corridor. Breezy northeasterly surface winds will develop at coastal locations this afternoon. Generally fair daytime dispersion values are expected across our area, except good values for the Suwannee Valley. Breezy northeasterly transport winds will overspread our region on Thursday, with breezy surface winds expected along the I-95 corridor that will spread inland during the afternoon hours. These breezy conditions will create good daytime dispersion values region-wide, with marginally high values possible for inland locations. Surface and transport winds will shift to east-northeasterly on Friday, with breezy conditions continuing at coastal locations. Good daytime dispersion values are forecast nearly area-wide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 91 67 91 / 30 10 0 0 SSI 78 87 76 87 / 20 20 0 0 JAX 76 88 71 89 / 20 30 0 0 SGJ 77 87 75 87 / 40 40 0 10 GNV 74 88 69 90 / 20 40 0 0 OCF 74 91 71 92 / 50 50 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$