082
FXUS62 KJAX 150158
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
958 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Diurnally enhanced convection will continue to fade across inland
areas west of Highway 301 over the next few hours with coastal
showers and isolated storms increasing in coverage near and south
of the surface front that was edging southward near KSSI. Breezy
ENE winds will continue overnight near the coast, with coastal
showers increasing in coverage toward sunrise. A few locally heavy
bands of rainfall are possible, especially for the NE FL coast
inland toward the St. Johns River basin where convergence will be
strongest. Mild lows will range from low 70s across inland SE GA
to the mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Peak heating into the lower/middle 90s across NE FL along with dew
point temps into the middle/upper 70s, will support widespread
heat indices into the 105-110 range early this afternoon and the
heat advisory remains in place for most of NE FL. The frontal
boundary along the FL/GA border will continue pushing slowly
southward and will help become the focus for afternoon showers and
storms, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds and a few
strong storms are expected, but widespread severe weather is not
expected at this time. Northeast winds will increase behind the
frontal boundary, mainly along Atlantic Coastal areas and even
near breezy levels around 15G25 mph along the SE GA coastal areas
at times. Afternoon/evening convection should fade over inland
areas after sunset, but the onshore flow will continue scattered
showers and storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters which could
push into the Atlantic Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor during the
late overnight/pre-dawn hours towards sunrise Thursday morning.
Behind the frontal boundary over inland areas of SE GA and the
Suwannee Valley some patchy fog can be expected by sunrise
Thursday morning as Min temps fall closer to normal values in the
lower/middle 70s inland, but remain in the upper 70s/near 80F
along the coastal Atlantic areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

High pressure ridging wedges down the east coast and covers the
area Thursday and Friday creating a northeast to easterly flow.
The onshore flow along with some lingering moisture Thursday over
NE FL will aid in producing some scattered showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm or two beginning along the NE FL coast in
the morning and making its way inland into the afternoon as the
sea-breeze begins to pick up. Drier air continues to fill in for
Friday, creating mostly clear sunny skies and lower humidities
making for a beautiful end to the work week. Thursday and Friday
daytime temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s inland
with temperatures along the coast staying a bit cooler with the
onshore winds. Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 60s
to low 70s inland with coastal temperatures in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Moisture begins to fill back in over the weekend and into the
beginning of next week with the return of convection Sunday
afternoon. Upper level troughing centers itself over the area by
Sunday and sticks around into the beginning of the week as a cold
front begins to make its way into SE GA Sunday morning. The cold
front will make its way south towards the FL/GA line by Tuesday.
Expect scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms beginning
Sunday and into next week ahead of the cold front and along the
sea-breeze boundary with stronger storms possible along I-95 where
boundaries converge in the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime
temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s staying slightly cooler
along the coast with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 70s
inland and upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

TS restrictions will continue to impact GNV over the next hour
with VCSH and periods of MVFR cigs impacting the other terminals
tonight as showers move inland under ENE winds as a front slides
southward down the local Atlantic coast. At this time, only
indicated prevailing MVFR at SSI based on obs between 00z-06z. For
other terminals, obs, MOS and NBH guidance only indicated < 10% of
MVFR conditions through 06z, so modified TAFs for only SCT020
bases vs broken. After 06z, ENE winds weaken to < 6 kts at VQQ
and GNV while remaining 5-10 kts at other terminals. Lower clouds
will skirt coastal locations, with the best potential for MVFR to
IFR cigs 06-12z toward VQQ, GNV and possibly SGJ. At this time
carried TEMPO groups of VQQ and GNV. After 12z, coastal showers
with MVFR conditions are possible, then convection spreads inland
and WSW into the afternoon with TS potential highest at GNV where
VCTS was indicated, with drier air but gusty ENE winds and
clearing skies for eastern and coastal terminals into the late
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A frontal boundary continues to move southeast across the area
Today as a high pressure ridge wedges down the east coast Tonight
through Thursday. Northward moving Tropical storm Ernesto is
expected to strengthen as it moves well to the east of the area
Thursday and Friday. While the system is expected to pass to the
east of the region, it will act to increase waves across the area.
As a result, Small Craft Advisory level wave heights are possible
for Friday and Saturday. The high pressure ridge will be over the
area Friday and Saturday, then it will build more toward the
southeast Sunday as a trough approaches from the northwest.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Moderate to High Thursday, High
Friday and Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Surface and transport winds will shift to northeasterly after
sunrise across southeast Georgia, while northwesterly transport
winds prevail into the early afternoon hours for locations south
of the I-10 corridor. Breezy northeasterly surface winds will
develop at coastal locations this afternoon. Generally fair
daytime dispersion values are expected across our area, except
good values for the Suwannee Valley. Breezy northeasterly
transport winds will overspread our region on Thursday, with
breezy surface winds expected along the I-95 corridor that will
spread inland during the afternoon hours. These breezy conditions
will create good daytime dispersion values region-wide, with
marginally high values possible for inland locations. Surface and
transport winds will shift to east-northeasterly on Friday, with
breezy conditions continuing at coastal locations. Good daytime
dispersion values are forecast nearly area-wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  91  67  91 /  30  10   0   0
SSI  78  87  76  87 /  20  20   0   0
JAX  76  88  71  89 /  20  30   0   0
SGJ  77  87  75  87 /  40  40   0  10
GNV  74  88  69  90 /  20  40   0   0
OCF  74  91  71  92 /  50  50   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$