151
FXUS62 KJAX 150513
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
113 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

High pressure ridging wedges down the east coast and covers the
area Thursday and Friday creating a northeast to easterly flow.
The onshore flow along with some lingering moisture Thursday over
NE FL will aid in producing some scattered showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm or two beginning along the NE FL coast in
the morning and making its way inland into the afternoon as the
sea-breeze begins to pick up. Drier air continues to fill in for
Friday, creating mostly clear sunny skies and lower humidities
making for a beautiful end to the work week. Thursday and Friday
daytime temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s inland
with temperatures along the coast staying a bit cooler with the
onshore winds. Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 60s
to low 70s inland with coastal temperatures in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Moisture begins to fill back in over the weekend and into the
beginning of next week with the return of convection Sunday
afternoon. Upper level troughing centers itself over the area by
Sunday and sticks around into the beginning of the week as a cold
front begins to make its way into SE GA Sunday morning. The cold
front will make its way south towards the FL/GA line by Tuesday.
Expect scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms beginning
Sunday and into next week ahead of the cold front and along the
sea-breeze boundary with stronger storms possible along I-95 where
boundaries converge in the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime
temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s staying slightly cooler
along the coast with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 70s
inland and upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A gusty onshore flow is expected this period. The highest winds will
be at coastal TAF sites. A few showers will develop near the coast
this morning. This activity will strengthen into thunderstorms
closer to noon with diurnal heating. The convection will then push
inland through the afternoon.

Occasional restrictions in stratus will be possible early in this
period, otherwise prevailing VFR conditions are expected. Brief
restrictions will also be possible in and near showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A frontal boundary continues to move southeast across the area
Today as a high pressure ridge wedges down the east coast Tonight
through Thursday. Northward moving Tropical storm Ernesto is
expected to strengthen as it moves well to the east of the area
Thursday and Friday. While the system is expected to pass to the
east of the region, it will act to increase waves across the area.
As a result, Small Craft Advisory level wave heights are possible
for Friday and Saturday. The high pressure ridge will be over the
area Friday and Saturday, then it will build more toward the
southeast Sunday as a trough approaches from the northwest.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Moderate to High Thursday, High
Friday and Saturday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  68  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  88  76  87  75 /  30   0   0   0
JAX  88  72  89  68 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  87  76  86  73 /  30   0  10   0
GNV  88  70  90  68 /  30   0   0   0
OCF  90  72  90  68 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 5 AM EDT early this morning through
     Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk from 5 AM EDT early this morning through
     Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$