Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
167 FXUS62 KJAX 120453 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1253 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A moist West to Southwest steering flow today becomes more Northwesterly tonight, but overall sensible weather remains similar with highs into the lower/middle 90s with peak heat indices in the 104-108F range, just below heat advisory criteria. PWATs remaining close to 2 inches and expect seasonal PoPs in the 40-60% range as sea breeze fronts move inland and merge between the I-95 and US 301 corridors during the afternoon/early evening hours, with heavy rainfall as the main threat, although a few strong or even isolated severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph are possible, as they drift back towards the Atlantic Coastal counties. Convection weakens and fades after sunset Saturday Night, with fair skies and lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 An area of low pressure will develop in the base of a trough extending south across the southeastern US, while high pressure moves away to the southeast. The low will slowly move southwest across forecast area Monday, and into the Gulf Monday night. Convergence and lift associated with this low, along with diurnal heating will lead to above average chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the daytime hours. The lowest chances this period will be over SE GA, as the position of the low allows drier to advect in from the north. Temperatures will be above normal this period. Due to the drier air, and lower precipitation coverage, daytime temperatures will be highest over inland SE GA. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 High pressure will build to the east Tuesday, with ridging increasing across forecast area through this period. Ample moisture will remain in place though, so above average precipitation chances will continue. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Mainly VFR conds with fair skies this morning, then diurnal heating will continue the threat of scattered storms this afternoon and evening and will continue PROB30 groups at all TAF sites, mainly in the 18-24Z time frame for MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty winds to 25 knots expected. VFR conds return after convection for the remainder of the TAF period from 02-06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 High pressure extending across central Florida and a surface trough across Georgia will bring prevailing southwest winds, shifting onshore each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. Scattered showers and storms will move offshore of the coast in the afternoon and early evening. Some storms may produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. SCA/SCEC headlines are not expected through this weekend or early next week. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continue today with surf/breakers around 2 feet, with a slight subsiding trend to 1-2 feet by Sunday/Monday, with low to moderate risk of rip currents continuing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 74 96 75 / 50 30 40 20 SSI 90 77 94 78 / 50 30 40 20 JAX 95 75 96 76 / 60 40 70 20 SGJ 94 76 94 76 / 40 40 70 30 GNV 96 75 94 75 / 50 30 80 30 OCF 95 74 93 76 / 40 20 80 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$