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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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151 FXUS62 KJAX 150513 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 113 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure ridging wedges down the east coast and covers the area Thursday and Friday creating a northeast to easterly flow. The onshore flow along with some lingering moisture Thursday over NE FL will aid in producing some scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two beginning along the NE FL coast in the morning and making its way inland into the afternoon as the sea-breeze begins to pick up. Drier air continues to fill in for Friday, creating mostly clear sunny skies and lower humidities making for a beautiful end to the work week. Thursday and Friday daytime temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with temperatures along the coast staying a bit cooler with the onshore winds. Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s inland with coastal temperatures in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Moisture begins to fill back in over the weekend and into the beginning of next week with the return of convection Sunday afternoon. Upper level troughing centers itself over the area by Sunday and sticks around into the beginning of the week as a cold front begins to make its way into SE GA Sunday morning. The cold front will make its way south towards the FL/GA line by Tuesday. Expect scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms beginning Sunday and into next week ahead of the cold front and along the sea-breeze boundary with stronger storms possible along I-95 where boundaries converge in the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s staying slightly cooler along the coast with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A gusty onshore flow is expected this period. The highest winds will be at coastal TAF sites. A few showers will develop near the coast this morning. This activity will strengthen into thunderstorms closer to noon with diurnal heating. The convection will then push inland through the afternoon. Occasional restrictions in stratus will be possible early in this period, otherwise prevailing VFR conditions are expected. Brief restrictions will also be possible in and near showers and storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A frontal boundary continues to move southeast across the area Today as a high pressure ridge wedges down the east coast Tonight through Thursday. Northward moving Tropical storm Ernesto is expected to strengthen as it moves well to the east of the area Thursday and Friday. While the system is expected to pass to the east of the region, it will act to increase waves across the area. As a result, Small Craft Advisory level wave heights are possible for Friday and Saturday. The high pressure ridge will be over the area Friday and Saturday, then it will build more toward the southeast Sunday as a trough approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Moderate to High Thursday, High Friday and Saturday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 68 91 68 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 88 76 87 75 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 88 72 89 68 / 20 0 0 0 SGJ 87 76 86 73 / 30 0 10 0 GNV 88 70 90 68 / 30 0 0 0 OCF 90 72 90 68 / 30 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 5 AM EDT early this morning through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk from 5 AM EDT early this morning through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$