378
FXUS62 KJAX 130514
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
114 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A few showers continue over eastern part of SE GA this evening...
should diminish next hour or two. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies
expected with current low temperature forecast looking good.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A continued slow increase in atmospheric moisture with PWATs
increasing into the 1.6" to 1.8" range is still expected to be
enough to kick off widely scattered showers and isolated storms
this afternoon and evening, mainly along the slowly inland moving
East Coast sea breeze which will make it between the I-95 and
US-17 highway corridors. Most of the convection will be brief in
nature, with slow and erratic movement and severe weather is not
expected. Any convection this evening will likely quickly fade
after sunset with fair skies and typical low temps in the
lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80 along the Atlantic
Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Steering flow will shift southerly Saturday returning moisture to
the area after a relatively dry past two days. With the weak
southerly flow, both sea breezes will be able to push inland and
interact, leaving numerous showers and storms possible for north
central Florida Saturday afternoon, with lower coverage over SE
GA. Heavy downpours will be likely as PWATs climb above 2.0" for
most of the area paired with slow storm motion expected.
Precipitation potential will increase a bit more on Sunday, and
with steering flow shifting more southwesterly, the Atlantic sea
breeze will be fairly pinned to the coast, leaving higher storm
coverage near the beaches as opposed to Saturday.

High temperatures will stay above normal this weekend, reaching
the mid to upper 90s area-wide, with low temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s. Heat indices will generally reach the 100-105 range,
although some locations are currently forecast to reach 108-110
along the east coast and near the St. Johns river basin on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Temperatures during this period will remain above average, though
trending slightly downward each day. Some locations, especially
near the coast will be close to Heat Advisory criteria on Monday.
Similar storm coverage is expected daily, with diurnal convection
firing up each afternoon, with the highest coverage over north
central Florida where sea breezes interact.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions with light and variable winds continue through the
rest of the morning. Convective chances ramp up this afternoon at
NE FL terminals as the sea breezes move inland, especially at
sites south of I-10 where deeper moisture and outflow interactions
will be prominent. Peak period of convection appears to be
between 19-23z but may linger for a few hours longer before fading
completely around 02z. The sea breeze will shift winds to the
east-southeasterly at most airfields along the I-95 corridor
through the early afternoon hours. Winds may become erratic with
t`storms in the vicinity through the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A weak surface low near the offshore waters will continue to move
northwards towards the South Carolina coast and dissipate this
weekend. From Sunday onward, the stagnant high pressure pattern
will change very little, with a predominant southerly flow in
place and afternoon sea breeze development. Seas will gradually
build through the weekend as a modest onshore swell reaches the
local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
be likely each day over the local waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk this weekend for NE FL and
SE GA beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75  97  75 /  20   0  30  10
SSI  94  80  93  79 /  30  10  30  20
JAX  96  77  96  76 /  40  10  60  20
SGJ  94  78  93  77 /  40  10  60  20
GNV  94  74  93  74 /  50  10  80  20
OCF  94  76  93  76 /  70  20  90  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$