Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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866 FXUS62 KJAX 111803 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 203 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast remains on track as weak low pressure development offshore this afternoon has continued to pull a drier airmass southward into SE GA and along the I-10 corridor of NE FL. Still expecting enough diurnal heating this afternoon to kick off some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across NE FL south of the I-10 corridor, but not expecting activity to linger much past sunset and just expecting some high cloudiness aloft as low temps fall into the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. The low pressure trough over the Atlantic will drift slowly to the W-NW and bring an increase in convection over the Atlantic Coastal waters after midnight and will likely approach portions of the Southeast Georgia coastal counties towards morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Low pressure just offshore in the Atlantic is expected to shift inland on the Georgia/South Carolina coast. Dry air intrusion around the back side of this low will keep our western counties fairly dry, with the eastern counties having about 20-40% precipitation chances on Friday. Temperatures will be able to climb into the mid to upper 90s for most of SE GA and NE FL with less cloud cover, although head indices will max out in the 100-105 range with the help of lower dewpoints. Temperatures will stay above normal Saturday as the low pressure again keeps GA on the drier side, with scattered storms likely north of I-10, with higher coverage over north central Florida as southerly flow allows both sea breezes to push inland and interact. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Southerly steering flow will bring in higher moisture this weekend, with PWATs jumping above 2.0" area-wide. A more typical summertime setup will be in place, with sea breeze interactions each day allowing scattered to numerous diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal during this period, with a gradual decrease in the high temperature forecast each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Drier airmass aloft and at the surface has suppressed any convection so far today, but enough heating and lingering moisture across NE FL has allowed for some SCT-BKN clouds to develop in the 4000-5000 ft range, but still only expecting a potential shower at SGJ/GNV through sunset and for now with chances so low, have only included VCSH for now. Otherwise VFR conds at all TAF sites with a late day East Coast sea breeze pushing into coastal TAF sites in the 20-22Z time frame. Light winds and VFR skies expected tonight with only the usual MVFR fog chances at VQQ towards sunrise. Late in the forecast period in the 15-18Z time frame expect some scattered cumulus development at all TAF sites and some model trends showing some isolated showers possible late in the period at SSI as low level moisture pushes onshore there. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 No headlines are expected as offshore Northwest flow today becomes Southwest tonight, then southerly on Friday, all mainly in the 10-15 knot range with seas 2-4 ft. This is all based on low pressure trough pushing to the NW and staying north of the local waters with only weak development expected over the next 1-2 days. Into the weekend and early next week a general south to southwest flow pattern at 10-15 knots with local sea breezes along the coast each afternoon/evening. Some brief nocturnal surges may reach into the 15-20 knot range at times, but overall do not expect any headlines over the next 5 days. Rip Currents: A low to moderate risk of rip currents will continue with a mainly offshore flow with a weak sea breeze expected each day into the weekend. Surf breakers of 1-2 ft today, will slowly build into the 2-3 ft range by the weekend as longer period swells reach the local waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 96 75 97 / 10 20 0 30 SSI 79 92 81 93 / 10 30 10 30 JAX 75 97 77 97 / 10 30 10 50 SGJ 76 95 78 94 / 10 30 10 50 GNV 74 95 74 95 / 10 20 0 60 OCF 73 94 75 94 / 20 40 10 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$