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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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737 FXUS62 KJAX 120535 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 135 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 846 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Appears to be little chance for shower development in our southern counties, so update will be dry for Tonight. Low temperature forecast looks good. No other changes planned in update. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of this afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast remains on track as weak low pressure development offshore this afternoon has continued to pull a drier airmass southward into SE GA and along the I-10 corridor of NE FL. Still expecting enough diurnal heating this afternoon to kick off some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across NE FL south of the I-10 corridor, but not expecting activity to linger much past sunset and just expecting some high cloudiness aloft as low temps fall into the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. The low pressure trough over the Atlantic will drift slowly to the W-NW and bring an increase in convection over the Atlantic Coastal waters after midnight and will likely approach portions of the Southeast Georgia coastal counties towards morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Low pressure just offshore in the Atlantic is expected to shift inland on the Georgia/South Carolina coast. Dry air intrusion around the back side of this low will keep our western counties fairly dry, with the eastern counties having about 20-40% precipitation chances on Friday. Temperatures will be able to climb into the mid to upper 90s for most of SE GA and NE FL with less cloud cover, although head indices will max out in the 100-105 range with the help of lower dewpoints. Temperatures will stay above normal Saturday as the low pressure again keeps GA on the drier side, with scattered storms likely north of I-10, with higher coverage over north central Florida as southerly flow allows both sea breezes to push inland and interact. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Southerly steering flow will bring in higher moisture this weekend, with PWATs jumping above 2.0" area-wide. A more typical summertime setup will be in place, with sea breeze interactions each day allowing scattered to numerous diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal during this period, with a gradual decrease in the high temperature forecast each day. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Outside of a shower, or possibly influence from an isolated thunderstorm, conditions at area terminals will be VFR through the period with scattered afternoon cumulus development. Given a few limited ingredients, anticipate more showery, rather than storm, activity today along the Atlantic sea breeze. Cannot entirely rule out t`storms at airfields along the I-95 corridor between 19z-23z but confidence is generally under 10%. Winds will initially favor a WNW direction and then turn easterly with the sea breeze around 8-10 kts this afternoon, except at KGNV where WSW winds are forecasted. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 No headlines are expected as offshore Northwest flow today becomes Southwest tonight, then southerly on Friday, all mainly in the 10-15 knot range with seas 2-4 ft. This is all based on low pressure trough pushing to the NW and staying north of the local waters with only weak development expected over the next 1-2 days. Into the weekend and early next week a general south to southwest flow pattern at 10-15 knots with local sea breezes along the coast each afternoon/evening. Some brief nocturnal surges may reach into the 15-20 knot range at times, but overall do not expect any headlines over the next 5 days. Rip Currents: A low to moderate risk of rip currents will continue with a mainly offshore flow with a weak sea breeze expected each day into the weekend. Surf breakers of 1-2 ft today, will slowly build into the 2-3 ft range by the weekend as longer period swells reach the local waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 96 75 97 75 / 20 0 30 10 SSI 92 81 93 80 / 30 10 30 20 JAX 97 77 97 77 / 30 10 50 20 SGJ 95 78 94 78 / 30 10 50 20 GNV 95 74 95 74 / 20 0 60 20 OCF 94 75 94 76 / 40 10 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$