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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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338 FXUS64 KJAN 171934 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 234 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Tonight through Monday... Tonight: Convection should persist through early evening, but wind down before midnight. In the wake, a quiet night will be in store, with some potential patchy fog in low-lying areas or locations that receive rainfall. With increased boundary layer moisture, persistence forecast, with seasonably warm lows in the mid-upper 70s (74-78F) are expected. Sunday-Monday: An active period of excessive heat & severe storms is expected Sunday, before a frontal zone moves through, finally breaking the grip of the heat & more seasonable & dry conditions move in next week. Synoptic & sfc pattern will consist of deep mid- level ridge centered over west TX to the southwest states while mean longwave trough persist east of the MS River Valley. This will keep perturbed northwest flow & a frontal zone is expected to sink southward into Sunday. Moisture & deep mixing is anticipated in advance of the frontal zone moving in. Guidance indicates efficient mixing up to 850-700mb layer. There are indications combined with this deep mixing, favorable thermo profiles (i.e. 28-30C vertical totals & DCAPE nearly 1800-2000 J/kg) & 25-40kt bulk shear in the mean 0-2 to 0-6km layer, southward moving organized convective clusters could contain some higher end gusts near 70mph at times & quarter size hail. Convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate some potential of gusts in excess of 50-60kts, so strong to severe storms remain a low-medium chance, where advertised "Slight" risk looks on track. The convective outlook area has been brought further southwards towards I-20, which seems to be in agreement with most guidance. With convective storm onset in the mid-late aftn timeframe, mainly between 2-4PM, high boundary layer moisture ahead of the boundary will lead to continued dangerous heat stress again into the aftn to early evening hours. With seasonably warm highs in the 98-102F range & excessive heat potential more expansive, the "Significant" area was expanded east along I-20 & southeast, with the "Extreme" taken out of the Delta, with less oppressive conditions today, while pulled eastward near east MS due to ongoing persistent dangerous heat & expected conditions Sunday. Heat headlines were maintained from mid-morning to early evening , with a heat advisory in east-northeast MS & a Excessive Heat Warning areal configuration with similar but slightly larger coverage. The Excessive Heat Warning may be able to be adjusted to the northeast but some earlier convective coverage makes this potential a low confidence forecast. Will led later shifts decide on any further adjustments. Expect storms to persist into the evening hours but could linger a little later closer to midnight. For now, timing looks mostly intact but may be able to be refined as confidence increases. Timing looks to be mid-late aftn & persist into the evening, with rain & storm chances in the isolated to scattered range (15-40%). As heights in the ridge to the west begins to fall, there will be continued surges of drier & less oppressive airmass beginning to move in the region into next week. This will help highs become more seasonable in the low-mid 90s & lows in the mid-upper 60s north of I- 20 to upper 60s to near 70F in the south into Tuesday morning. Some storms are possible but become more focused into the Hwy 84 corridor into Monday aftn to early evening. Can`t rule out an isolated strong storm in southwest MS & portions of northeast LA on Monday. /DC/ Tuesday through Friday... Post frontal passage will bring relief from the oppressive heat/humidity of the previous week. Upper/mid-lvl ridge will primarily encompass the Southern Plains/CO/NM area, placing the ArkLaMiss region on the periphery of the ridge. As a result, northwest to northerly flow allows for dewpoints to fall into the upper 50-mid 60s range across the area, lowering humidity for the area. Afternoon high won`t be as hot either, as upper 80s/lower 90s temps are expected. Low temperatures will more likely resemble early fall than summer, as low temperatures are expected to range in the 60s midweek to near 70 degrees by late week. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Scattered cumulus/cirrus cloud cover; however; ceilings aren`t impacted. Between 19Z Saturday-02Z Sunday, VCTS/VCSH/-SHRA will be possible for sites near and south of I-20. Local decreased visibilities and gusty winds above 40 kts will be likely near storms. After 02Z Saturday, quiet conditions will prevail. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 100 74 92 / 20 20 40 20 Meridian 74 101 71 93 / 20 30 30 10 Vicksburg 76 101 74 92 / 20 20 30 20 Hattiesburg 76 100 75 95 / 30 20 30 20 Natchez 76 100 75 92 / 20 10 30 30 Greenville 75 100 72 90 / 20 20 30 20 Greenwood 75 100 72 92 / 20 20 30 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018- 019-025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>057-059>066- 072>074. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018- 019-025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>066-072>074. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ030-031-033-038- 039-045-046-051-052-058. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ030-031-033- 038-039-045-046. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074- 075. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074- 075. && $$ DC/SW